sure. could you include russian bid for euro 2008 in your next post (if possible)?
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A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation
- Thread starter panpiotr
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Then congratulations, from now on you are responsible for organization of the tournament. Some initiatives would be good from you to include them in chapters.
For this, I was thinking of being someone who wants to bring Formula 1 to Russia earlier than 2014 (where the Russian GP arose in our timeline).
1. Should the death penalty be abolished in the Union State?
A) Yes.
2. Should Russia invite the following countries: Ukraine, Georgia, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria into the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)?
A) Yes.
3. Please write down, how should the Russian government deal with ongoing demographic changes (that is, lower fertility rate and aging population)?
I'll give my support to the plans of @ruffino and @Kriss.
4. Please write down, how should the Russian government deal with diversification of the economy?
Likewise I'll give my support to the plans of @ruffino and @Kriss
5. Please write down, how should the Russian government development of the countryside and rural areas in Russia?
Again I'll give my support to the plans of @ruffino and @Kriss.
Through diplomatic channels, Washington offered a following deal: USA will agree for entry of Ukraine into CSTO and Russia's in WTO, but in exchange Russia must agree for the Baltic States entry into NATO and American economic expansion into the Caucasus and Central Asia.
I'll give my support to @Kriss's plan
A) Yes.
2. Should Russia invite the following countries: Ukraine, Georgia, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria into the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)?
A) Yes.
3. Please write down, how should the Russian government deal with ongoing demographic changes (that is, lower fertility rate and aging population)?
I'll give my support to the plans of @ruffino and @Kriss.
4. Please write down, how should the Russian government deal with diversification of the economy?
Likewise I'll give my support to the plans of @ruffino and @Kriss
5. Please write down, how should the Russian government development of the countryside and rural areas in Russia?
Again I'll give my support to the plans of @ruffino and @Kriss.
Through diplomatic channels, Washington offered a following deal: USA will agree for entry of Ukraine into CSTO and Russia's in WTO, but in exchange Russia must agree for the Baltic States entry into NATO and American economic expansion into the Caucasus and Central Asia.
I'll give my support to @Kriss's plan
Well if i aren't imposing i could do in universe character to write about roots of Euroasian history. I did say that i was inspired by Russian left wing nationalism and Panslavism, but i didn't know weather to apply this to Dugin, or some other writer given my weak knowledge of Russian literally circles.
Then i would do Yugoslav wars, but with ITTL twist as a side show, following my own take on geopolitical future of Russia and Ukrainian role in Euroasia.
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Population TTL vs OTL
Alright I'm going to give it a crack, focusing first on Russia. Note this will be very rough. The sources I have used: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
I'll first try to crack the migration numbers into and out of Russia. We had significant numbers of people leaving coupled with an even greater number of Russians coming in from various post-Soviet states. The first assumption I make here is the number of immigrants has remained the same, but due to alternate policies we adopted which ensured the rights of Russians living in many of the breakaway states this immigrant mix has a lot more non-Russians present. Source 2 speaks upon the ratios of the populations which immigrated to Russia and since it was published in 2002 is a great insight into the '91-'00 period. By OTL 2002, out of the 25.3 million Russians who were living outside Russia, 22 million remained outside. I will assume that even with solid economic growth, due to the efforts of our government to keep Russians in the countries they were living in - instead of 3.3 million Russians entering, it was closer to 1.5 million. Source 3 highlights 6.9 million immigrants moved in - approximately half to two thirds were Russians (again a bit of a discrepancy within sources, but that is unavoidable), but this means there is a greater mix of Ukrainians, folk from Central Asia and folk from the Caucasus. Source 1, page 14 has a very simple and easy to understand table where the authors estimate that 4.1 million people emigrated compared to the official number of 2.97 million which makes perfect sense to me due to often the very illegal nature of emigration (such as trafficking). I'm going to be bold here and assume that 2.8 million out of that 4.1 million do not leave, and if they do leave they end up returning due to disillusionment with the lifestyle in the west. This reduction also includes 2/3rds of the 500-700k women who were trafficked which is a major positive for our nation (and pro-natal policies). So net gain compared to OTL at this point: +2.8 million.
Next, looking at death rates, I will assume that more hope and availability of work coupled with our policies hitting Russian drinking culture has had some impact. Source 4 in very stark terms lets us know that of the 12 million premature deaths in the 15-69 age group between 1992-2001 (8.3 million men and 3.7 million women), had mortality rates remained the same as 1991, 2.8 million (2.14 million men, 0.63 million women) less people would have died. Additionally, had mortality decreased at the same rate as it did in the Czech Republic - a further 1.26 million (0.86 million men and 0.4 million women) less deaths would have occurred. Source 5 shows the corresponding economic growth of the Czech Republic during this time - something that can be compared to our Russia very easily and so I will use this as a basis (because not only was there comparable economic growth, but we went further and clamped down on the ridiculous alcoholism). Our efforts on the alcohol front likely had an impact because of the availability of employment, investment and general feeling of hope due to this as well as a stable political environment because without these things our efforts to curb alcoholism would have yielded nada. Not to mention we have created small scale business opportunities for local alcohol producers which ironically forces them to be more sober to sell their product well lol. So reduction in deaths/net gain compared to OTL on this front (it can be argued even more people than this survived due to significantly better conditions when compared to OTL but I don't want to completely get carried away): +4.0 million .
Now the big one - birth rates. In '92 the TFR was 1.547 and number of births: 1.59 million for a population of 148.53 million. In '93 the TFR was 1.369 and number of births: 1.38 million. I've argued the TFR to stabilise at 1.45 by '93 before reaching 1.55 by '00. So alternate number of births in ATL '93: 1.45 million. But from here it gets really tricky. Consider that '92 had a TFR of 1.547 and '09 a TFR of 1.542 in OTL. But the number of births in '92 was 1.59 million whereas it was 1.76 million in '09 while the population had decreased to 142 million! Looking at the demographic pyramid, it's because there were basically more people in the 20-30 age range in '09 compared to '92. But I am going to assume here, this will be a period (ATL '92-'00) where women between 31-40 in OTL who didn't have children or had less children will have more here. Additionally, we'll have more couples having children in Russia who would not have existed OTL because they either died or emigrated (taking these into account for alternate birth rates is a major challenge however).
Below is the table of alternate birth numbers and TFR with OTL counterparts from source 6.
| Year | ATL TFR | ATL Births (mn) | OTL TFR | OTL Births (mn) |
| 1992 | 1.547 | 1.587 | 1.547 | 1.587 |
| 1993 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.369 | 1.378 |
| 1994 | 1.46 | 1.475 | 1.394 | 1.408 |
| 1995 | 1.47 | 1.499 (1.502) | 1.337 | 1.363 |
| 1996 | 1.48 | 1.52 (1.53) | 1.270 | 1.304 |
| 1997 | 1.49 | 1.54 (1.55) | 1.218 | 1.259 |
| 1998 | 1.51 | 1.573 (1.59) | 1.232 | 1.283 |
| 1999 | 1.53 | 1.605 (1.625) | 1.157 | 1.214 |
| 2000 | 1.55 | 1.642 (1.665) | 1.195 | 1.266 |
| Total Births | 13.984 | 12.062 |
To calculate ATL births, I took the ratio of (OTL Births/OTL TFR) which I then multiplied by ATL TFR to obtain ATL Birth numbers. The numbers in brackets in ATL Births are the number of births I think that would have occurred taking into account the additional couples that were not present in OTL (so in 1995 for example I've presumed the additional births to be 30k which grows to 200k by 1999). For total birth calculation I use the numbers in the brackets which I think would be a truer representation of birthrates (so I used 1.625 instead of 1.605 for 1999 for example). So increase in babies born compared to OTL: +1.982 million.
Combining all this gives us a population increase of 8.78 million compared to OTL Russia in 2000, whose population was 146.89 million. Therefore population of ATL Russia, 2000: 155.67 million.
For Belarus, I'm feeling a bit lazy lol. So I'm going to do:
% change of Russian population compared to OTL: +5.98% (8.78*100/146.89)
Increase in Belarusian population with same rate: 0.597 million (9.98*0.0598)
Therefore population of ATL Belarus, 2000: 10.58 million.
All in all, population of Union State, 2000: 166.25 million.
(Phew, that took a while lol).
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True, but instead of falling compared to OTL, we are setting ourselves up for an incredible population explosion and likely retaining either 6th or 7th position. If things keep improving and we literally just follow the OTL TFR but with +0.4 (due to difference between OTL and ATL TFR in 1999) our growth is going to be massive. And we already know our TFR is going to shoot up higher than that - potentially touching 3.0 at some point over the next 20 years. We will definitely be overtaking Brazil. Compare OTL 1992 and 2009 in the thumbnails below. There is a whole new generation whose numbers are still healthy in '92 who will be coming of age over a period of Russia Economic Growth that promises to be unlike anything Russia has ever seen. OTL 2009 is going to look like a horror to those within ATL 2009!
No worries at all mate! I can give it a crack lol. Although maybe we should do it every 5 years for more dramatic effect hahaha?
Population ranking (2000)
1. China - 1,242,000,000
2. India - 1,040,000,000
3. United States - 281,500,000
4. Indonesia - 206,264,595
5. Brazil - 170,000,000
6. Union State - 166,250,000
7. Pakistan - 140,000,000
8. Bangladesh - 130,000,000
9. Japan - 127,000,000
10. Nigeria - 119,000,000
11. Mexico - 100,500,000
12. Germany - 82,500,000
13. Vietnam - 78,758,000
14. Ethiopia - 77,431,000
15. Philippines - 76,506,928
16. Egypt - 74,033,000
17. Turkey - 73,193,000
18. Iran - 69,515,000
19. Thailand - 64,233,000
20. France - 58,921,000
21. United Kingdom - 58,459,000
22. Italy - 57,620,000
23. Congo - 57,549,000
24. Myanmar - 50,519,000
25. Ukraine - 50,429,000
2. India - 1,040,000,000
3. United States - 281,500,000
4. Indonesia - 206,264,595
5. Brazil - 170,000,000
6. Union State - 166,250,000
7. Pakistan - 140,000,000
8. Bangladesh - 130,000,000
9. Japan - 127,000,000
10. Nigeria - 119,000,000
11. Mexico - 100,500,000
12. Germany - 82,500,000
13. Vietnam - 78,758,000
14. Ethiopia - 77,431,000
15. Philippines - 76,506,928
16. Egypt - 74,033,000
17. Turkey - 73,193,000
18. Iran - 69,515,000
19. Thailand - 64,233,000
20. France - 58,921,000
21. United Kingdom - 58,459,000
22. Italy - 57,620,000
23. Congo - 57,549,000
24. Myanmar - 50,519,000
25. Ukraine - 50,429,000
Art Vandelay
Banned
We could just, I don't know, not accept mass migration from 3rd world war zones? We see in otl how well that's worked out for Europe
I don't think we will ever have a 3.0 TFR, maybe in maslim areas, but not in the whole country. Russia is already a highly industrial and urban society and our TFR will be under replacement wanting or not, there is any developed country in OTL that rose the TFR above replacement for much long, in fact, the richer the country, lower the TFR