What are the major impacts of a short delay to WW1?

[RMcD94]

Let's say the inciting incident for WW1 is delayed just a smidgen.

What are the biggest things (new weaponry, new ships, new doctrine, new economy, new alliances?) that will change the war if it happens:

1 day later

1 week later

1 month later

3 months later

6 months later
By this time Irish Home Rule may be implemented in the UK

1 year later

18 months?
Empire of China and National Protection War are almost exactly 18 months later.

2 years?

At which point do the delays cause the war to be near unrecognisable (over within a year, major difference alliances, no Russian revolution, no USA involvement, etc) as opposed to just a different outcome [CP wins, etc]

 

[Riain]

The German general Staff planning cycle was from April to March each year and the Russian was July to June. If the war was delayed until April 1915 it is likely that the German General Staff would have more than one mobilisation-offensive campaign option to present to the Government. If the war was delayed until July 1915 the Russians would have Plan-20 in it's entirety, complete with 9th and 10th Armies as well established formations rather than the Plan-19/20 mashup of August 1914 with these 2 Armies only raised on paper 4 weeks earlier.

The German army expansion by 135,000 men would be complete in 1914, it came at the expense of a new Naval Law in 1913-14, so perhaps a new Naval Law would be enacted in 1914-15.

The French were undertaking an expansion of their heavy artillery from 1913, they stood up 47 batteries in the new organisation in April 1914 using existing howitzers of which 26 were the modern Rimlaho 155mm pieces, planned to stand up another 18 in October 1914 and had ordered 110 Schneider 105mm heavy field guns of which a few had been delivered by August. They planned to stand up another 35 batteries in April 1915 and planned to order some 110 more Schneider 105mms guns and ~110 field howitzers also from Schneider. If the war was delayed until April 1915 the French would have the 110 x 105mm guns in service and by October 1915 would have all ~440 modern heavy field artillery pieces in service.

 

[Otto Kretschmer]

The Russian army was undergoing a process of major modernization when the war started. Delaying the war until summer 1915 means that Russian army will be stronger than IOTL.

 

[Riain]

The Russian army was undergoing a process of major modernization when the war started. Delaying the war until summer 1915 means that Russian army will be stronger than IOTL.

What did that entail?

They added another 2 field armies in July 1914 and were undergoing a major French backed railway building programme due to be complete by 1917 that would increase the speed of mobilisation so much that the Germans were in a panic. But I don't know about any other stuff, were they getting new equipment, training, organisation?

 

[Atterdag]

Say the war starts in 1916 in more or less the same way, how does that affect the US election?

 

[Aphrodite]

What did that entail?

They added another 2 field armies in July 1914 and were undergoing a major French backed railway building programme due to be complete by 1917 that would increase the speed of mobilisation so much that the Germans were in a panic. But I don't know about any other stuff, were they getting new equipment, training, organisation?

Russian great program covers just about everything, aircraft would begin deliver sikorsky four engine reconnaissance, 175 million expansion of field artillery- by 1917 they would have equal to Germany

(More details when I get back home)

The Turkish dreadnought s would have been delivered in August,

King Carol dies in October ending Romania's links to Germany

Joffre retires in September or October

 

[RMcD94]

Would this mean Romania joins the Entente earlier?

It really seems like if in only a few months France and Russia would be significantly stronger that 1914 was Germany's best chance?

 

[Mikestone8]

Say the war starts in 1916 in more or less the same way, how does that affect the US election?

Insofar as it makes any difference it probably helps Hughes.

At that early stage in the war, US intervention will not yet be seen as even a remote possibility, so "He kept us out of war" will carry far less weight.