Basically. Though the context of it depends greatly not just on Mexico’s exit from the war (again, Mexican leadership is highly cautious to not use the word “surrender”) and the chaos that causes but also the Texan grievances against Pa Ferguson and the new paradigm in Richmond
Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
Nice. Any time where a Ferguson is thrown out of power in Texas is a good time
It isn't a "retreat," it is an "advancement to the rear!"
Shadow Wars: A History of Espionage and Counterintelligence
"...deduced, correctly, that the Brazilians - perhaps via their Germanophile Foreign Minister Lauro Muller - had managed to find an agent at the Signaldienst telegraph stations in either Aruba, Costa Rica, or both. This was a coup, to be sure, but not quite as dangerous as it could have been. For one, by the last months of 1915, there was not all too much that the United States was transmitting that could have affected Brazil, what with the Caribbean effectively an American lake and only a few scattered companies of trainers and volunteers on the ground in Argentina. Indeed, the American position in the Caribbean was strong enough that a debate had begun within the Navy of how to restore cables to Haiti and Nicaragua safely and effectively in order to stop relying on the Germans, who Yardley had always known as an open secret were "reading the mail."
Before that, though, Yardley's small tests of Brazilian ships in the water, with the coordination with the Naval Intelligence Office, did prove that somebody in either Aruba or Costa Rica (it was hard to determine which, exactly, because it was still hard to send messages to one without the either) was passing information on American ship movements off the coast of Guyana to the Brazilians to help their patrols near the mouth of the Amazon avoid the Americans. Despite the fact that Stimson strongly disliked Yardley - the cryptologist's practice was, to an old-fashioned brahmin like the Secretary of War, ungentlemanly and "Y" was never the easiest personality to manage as a superior anyways - he set his dislike for the man aside when presented with a novel idea that, perhaps, helped speed up the end of the war in South America and cemented a place for the Cypher Bureau, and the Office of Strategic Services thereafter, for good. [1]
What Yardley proposed was classic ruse de guerre. The Navy and Army would, using the Aruba transfer station, begin sending signals to Nicaragua to prepare for a major "Mesopotamian Expeditionary Force" to be supplied and staffed through the Canal, in order to place over a hundred thousand American soldiers at Mar del Plata and Buenos Aires in tandem with an expansion of the Naval squadron off the Argentinean coast to begin a general offensive to liberate not only the Mesopotamian Argentina but push into Brazil and perhaps seize Uruguay as well. The messages were coded, but weakly, making them just lucrative enough to steal and pass along to Brazil but also easy enough for Brazilians to decipher.
They were also absolute fiction. Even as Mexico called for a ceasefire and prepared to exit the war, the United States was exhausted after a long, brutal year of fighting and had as its strategic objectives by year end little more than securing a foothold north of the Rappahannock, taking Knoxville and Huntsville and consolidating its position in West Texas. There were plans to put men in Argentina sometime in 1916, but those plans kept getting pushed further and further back, and War Department estimates suggested that the earliest a field force of sufficient size, strength and morale could be sent to the River Plate in the kinds of numbers needed to actually be useful was probably May or June. Brazil, however, did not know this, but they did know that with the Canal clear for use and both Chile and Mexico exiting the war, the linkages of the Bloc Sud were now very weak, and the idea that eight or more divisions of American men might be arriving as soon as late December or early January did what it was intended to - it spooked military leadership, especially once rumors of an imminent direct American intervention began trickling down to junior officers and enlisted men.
These false deployment plans are a large part of what eventually, in early 1916, persuaded Brazil to seek peace with Argentina and the United States, and likely thus saved tens of thousands of lives on all sides from the meatgrinder on the Parana River. Yardley's work was validated, even begrudgingly by many, and the Cipher Bureau was, surprisingly to him, kept open even after the war as signals intelligence revealed yet again its immense value on the modern battlefield..."
- Shadow Wars: A History of Espionage and Counterintelligence
[1] This is largely true - Stimson was ambivalent of the somewhat-still unproven signals intelligence bureaus generally, but especially not in peacetime - the quote of "Gentlemen do not read each others' mail!" is attributed to him. This wasn't necessarily just a Stimson thing, either - the British rolled up MI-8 in the late 1920s, as well.
Before that, though, Yardley's small tests of Brazilian ships in the water, with the coordination with the Naval Intelligence Office, did prove that somebody in either Aruba or Costa Rica (it was hard to determine which, exactly, because it was still hard to send messages to one without the either) was passing information on American ship movements off the coast of Guyana to the Brazilians to help their patrols near the mouth of the Amazon avoid the Americans. Despite the fact that Stimson strongly disliked Yardley - the cryptologist's practice was, to an old-fashioned brahmin like the Secretary of War, ungentlemanly and "Y" was never the easiest personality to manage as a superior anyways - he set his dislike for the man aside when presented with a novel idea that, perhaps, helped speed up the end of the war in South America and cemented a place for the Cypher Bureau, and the Office of Strategic Services thereafter, for good. [1]
What Yardley proposed was classic ruse de guerre. The Navy and Army would, using the Aruba transfer station, begin sending signals to Nicaragua to prepare for a major "Mesopotamian Expeditionary Force" to be supplied and staffed through the Canal, in order to place over a hundred thousand American soldiers at Mar del Plata and Buenos Aires in tandem with an expansion of the Naval squadron off the Argentinean coast to begin a general offensive to liberate not only the Mesopotamian Argentina but push into Brazil and perhaps seize Uruguay as well. The messages were coded, but weakly, making them just lucrative enough to steal and pass along to Brazil but also easy enough for Brazilians to decipher.
They were also absolute fiction. Even as Mexico called for a ceasefire and prepared to exit the war, the United States was exhausted after a long, brutal year of fighting and had as its strategic objectives by year end little more than securing a foothold north of the Rappahannock, taking Knoxville and Huntsville and consolidating its position in West Texas. There were plans to put men in Argentina sometime in 1916, but those plans kept getting pushed further and further back, and War Department estimates suggested that the earliest a field force of sufficient size, strength and morale could be sent to the River Plate in the kinds of numbers needed to actually be useful was probably May or June. Brazil, however, did not know this, but they did know that with the Canal clear for use and both Chile and Mexico exiting the war, the linkages of the Bloc Sud were now very weak, and the idea that eight or more divisions of American men might be arriving as soon as late December or early January did what it was intended to - it spooked military leadership, especially once rumors of an imminent direct American intervention began trickling down to junior officers and enlisted men.
These false deployment plans are a large part of what eventually, in early 1916, persuaded Brazil to seek peace with Argentina and the United States, and likely thus saved tens of thousands of lives on all sides from the meatgrinder on the Parana River. Yardley's work was validated, even begrudgingly by many, and the Cipher Bureau was, surprisingly to him, kept open even after the war as signals intelligence revealed yet again its immense value on the modern battlefield..."
- Shadow Wars: A History of Espionage and Counterintelligence
[1] This is largely true - Stimson was ambivalent of the somewhat-still unproven signals intelligence bureaus generally, but especially not in peacetime - the quote of "Gentlemen do not read each others' mail!" is attributed to him. This wasn't necessarily just a Stimson thing, either - the British rolled up MI-8 in the late 1920s, as well.
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This reminds me of the OTL Bavarian attempts to negotiate a separate peace with the Allies in 1917-18. Maybe TTL Texas will be more successful...
So, for roughly six months or so in 1916, the CSA will be all alone vs the fully armed and operational battle station that is the American military.
Good luck with that Dixie!
You mean the fact that there will be a unit of the Mexican Military which on getting off at the San Antonio Railroad for a refueling stop gets into a firefight with a larger unit of Confederate Troops southeast of them pushing the Mexicans about a quarter mile Northwest before they are able to find cover near the Mission San Antonio de Valero long enough for Local Texan troops to support them?
I don't remember where, but we basically got a flashforward of the Brazilian/Argentinian peace treaty fairly early in the war. Mesopotamia, Argentina is demilitarized (which is the part of Argentina east of the Parana River, between there and the Uruguay) which removes Argentine forces from both the Brazilian and Uruguayan border and (because of that) Brazil gets to "Puppet" Uruguay.
Yeah, I think the whole thing is that Brazil could have gotten these exact terms WAY before but instead opted to put tens of thousands of her sons into early graves because Command got greedy and now all they have to show for it for a year+ effort is tombstones and maimed young men
No. the US Army won't have advanced *that* far into Texas. (For that to happen, the US Army would *have* to take Dallas/Fort Worth which is *far* closer to the Indian Territories which they control. (and in terms of Distance, getting to San Antonio is *farther* than the Army of Ohio getting to the Gulf!). In fact arguably at this point in the war, even with Texas having been invaded, San Antonio is farther from US Soldiers/Sailors than any other significant city in the Confederacy!!!
In fact, San Antonio makes a *lot* of sense there (Mission San Antonio de Valero , less so) since IMO, San Antonio to Nuevo Laredo and on to Monterrey probably makes sense as *the* primary Railroad connection between Mexico and the Confederacy. So the Mexican soldiers are *almost* home, this possibly being the last stop. OTOH, once things get ugly, it isn't *that* far to Austin.
Brazilian two years of waste posting is at
And yeah, it boils down to terms of the Demilitarization of the Mesopotamia and the puppeting of Uruguay could probably have been accomplished 6-12 months into the war...
Post also includes the concept of Chile being Defenestrated, which wasn't *that* far off.
Cinco de Mayo
If I was to guess Prat is probably the father or grandfather of the Chilean army General Carlos Prats of the early 1970s. It would be interesting to see what effect the GAW has on the state of the Presidentialist regime of 1891. I would imagine that it could have a democratizing effect in terms...
www.alternatehistory.com
Post also includes the concept of Chile being Defenestrated, which wasn't *that* far off.
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How many American Divisions are *actually* fighting in Mesopotamia?
Speaking as a native West Texan I see the region being flooded by American businessmen and citizens buying up farmland and property for cheap post-war. There is also Petroleum deposits in the Midland/Odessa area which will attract workers and investors. There also may be a movement to settle or offer incentives for Blacks and other immigrants to settle to tie the state closer to the US.
At this point, I don't think *any*, even if the entire expeditionary force was moved there, I'm not sure that adds up to a Division. IMO, if the US were to intervene, it would be *far* , *far* better off trying to sink the Brazilian Navy and do Marine raids in areas farther to the north. Yes, a *long* distance to go and much more resource intensive than the equivalent raids in Confederacy (or even Mexico) would be, but that would force Brazilian soldiers to be pulled north into *dozens* of coastal cities.
The author has pointed out, that at this point, the oil reserves which were known about were much farther South and East in areas that would be more or less impossible to take from Texas and leave it as an independent country. (And the author has enjoyed getting rid of Turtledove tropes such as the State of Houston)
I *honestly* don't expect a significant "Penalty" from the US for the newly independent RoT to end the war. If the New country's constitution bans slavery and if they agree to exit the war (even if they give the Confederate Military a week to depart), my guess is that Philadelphia will sign off on it. They may not even have to declare war on Richmond, (Richmond may do that for them!)
OTOH, If the Brazilians know that they arent real beachheads for an offensive instead they are just raids, they can just let them raid and leave the area without having to pull troops to the north.
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