Russian Pyrrhic victory in the Russo-Japanese War. Long-term effects.

[Sturm1820]

Hello everyone, I am not an expert on the subject so I would like to see more educated opinions on the situation but in any case, I am doing a TL on a late CP Victory (something like 1917-1918) and in order to add some more diversity and I wanted to explore other points of divergence, like the one I mention here, if a Russian Pyrrhic victory in the Russo-Japanese war were possible, I am aware that a Russian victory in the war of 1904 brings about significant changes in European diplomacy, as Russia could have a stronger position in the Far East (keeping the British on their toes) and not appear so weak to others. European powers, however and assuming that certain events continue to happen in a more or less similar way to OTL, what would its long-term effects be? How would Asia change? How would the era of warlords unfold? What would European diplomacy be like until the outbreak of the Great War? How will Russia perform in the Alternative WWI? Will the February and October revolutions happen?

I'd like to see your opinions and answers, as I'd like to see if the ideas I have might work to bring some freshness to my TL.

 

[TimTurner]

Perhaps the Japanese plan to attack the Russian fleet is not entirely successful. Or have the Japanese suffer some naval calamity which hurts them significantly.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

One interesting effect is that it could turn Japan away from the idea that determined human wave assaults could overcome modern defensive weapons. OTL, they found that they could win by accepting high casualties, but didn't experience the failures if this approach in 1914 to 1918.

ITTL, they don't win. If they didn't use human wave tactics maybe they now will, if they did they will likely take stock and change their approach.

 

[Sturm1820]

Perhaps the Japanese plan to attack the Russian fleet is not entirely successful. Or have the Japanese suffer some naval calamity which hurts them significantly.

I was thinking of the Russians having more land victories and extending the conflict until the Japanese can't anymore financially.

 

[Captain Seafort]

have the Japanese suffer some naval calamity which hurts them significantly.

That happened historically when they lost Yashima and Hatsuse to mines on the same day. They plugged their two Garibaldis into the battle line and kept going.

The problem with the RJW is that you can't really get a pyrrhic victory for either side - either they win or they lose, especially Japan, because whichever side has ultimate control of the sea can effectively dictate the course of events. Once Japan has control of Port Arthur, the IJN is free to concentrate force (either to stop the 2nd Pacific Sqn or support the IJA) pretty much wherever it likes. If Port Arthur holds out, the Russians will have overwhelming force once the squadron shows up, which will both compel a retreat from Korea and threaten an invasion of the Home Islands, forcing Japan to sue for peace. If Rozhesvensky manages to slip through to Vladivostok then he'll force a repeat of the siege of Port Arthur, except that the IJA is knackered, even with its refit period the IJN is getting very, very stretched, and Japan as a country is approaching the point of exhaustion - again, Japan sues for peace.