Italian Libya in the Cold War

[La Rouge Beret]

With a POD where Italy sits out the second world war, are the Italians able to hold onto the 'Fourth Shore' during the Cold War?

My thought based on the numerous population graphs that I've seen on this website, is that the Italians either were or would become a plurality post war. What would relations be like with the newly independent states of Algeria and a Nasser led Egypt? Can there be peaceful co-existence or will there border skirmishes?

Here is a 1938 map from wikipedia for reference:

 

[Pelranius]

If and when Fascism collapses, Italy will cut off Libya but ties between the two countries will likely be extensive (see OTL Kazakh-Russian ties), since a democratic Italy wouldn't want Libya hanging around inside its electoral politics, with all the implications (especially with free movement of Libyans into Italy).

There's no way there will be an Italian majority in the long run (right now, Libya has 7 million Libyans. Where are 7 million+ Italians going to come from, and more importantly, what economic incentives are there for them to stay there? While large, no conceivable Libyan petroleum industry is going to support several million Italians at living standards approximately anything on the mainland).

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Kazakhstan & Russia is a good analogue, i.e. significant ethnic minority from a neighbouring power with major economic linkages between the two countries.

 

[Mooze17]

If and when Fascism collapses, Italy will cut off Libya but ties between the two countries will likely be extensive (see OTL Kazakh-Russian ties), since a democratic Italy wouldn't want Libya hanging around inside its electoral politics, with all the implications (especially with free movement of Libyans into Italy).

There's no way there will be an Italian majority in the long run (right now, Libya has 7 million Libyans. Where are 7 million+ Italians going to come from, and more importantly, what economic incentives are there for them to stay there? While large, no conceivable Libyan petroleum industry is going to support several million Italians at living standards approximately anything on the mainland).

Wasn’t Fascist Italy planning to Ethnically cleanse Libya at some point? From what I remember it was, and in that case it’s less of an issue of getting in 7 million Italians as it is depopulating Libya enough the Italian settlers can become dominant.

 

[Enigmajones]

I think the French in Algeria had a similar situation to this ATL. They weren't able to keep Algeria and they had been colonizing it (from a number of sources, which included Spanish and Italians) since the 1830's.

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

If and when Fascism collapses, Italy will cut off Libya but ties between the two countries will likely be extensive (see OTL Kazakh-Russian ties), since a democratic Italy wouldn't want Libya hanging around inside its electoral politics, with all the implications (especially with free movement of Libyans into Italy).

There's no way there will be an Italian majority in the long run (right now, Libya has 7 million Libyans. Where are 7 million+ Italians going to come from, and more importantly, what economic incentives are there for them to stay there? While large, no conceivable Libyan petroleum industry is going to support several million Italians at living standards approximately anything on the mainland).

Will the population of Libya was much smaller during the 40s they can easily settle large amounts of Italians to get a sizable percentage.

 

[Pelranius]

Wasn’t Fascist Italy planning to Ethnically cleanse Libya at some point? From what I remember it was, and in that case it’s less of an issue of getting in 7 million Italians as it is depopulating Libya enough the Italian settlers can become dominant.

Doubtful, due to the economics (not to mention the guaranteed insurgency) of ethnically cleansing (much less genociding) the Libyans.

 

[Pelranius]

Will the population of Libya was much smaller during the 40s they can easily settle large amounts of Italians to get a sizable percentage.

They could get a sizeable percentage, but that would inevitably decline due to higher Libyan birth rates (and Italians wanting to emigrate to somewhere with higher living standards, Libya is likely only to ever have petroleum as a major industry due to its being largely desert).

 

[Mooze17]

Doubtful, due to the economics (not to mention the guaranteed insurgency) of ethnically cleansing (much less genociding) the Libyans.

They already where doing ethnic cleansing in Libya though, for example when they forcibly expelled over 100,000 Bedouin Cyrenaicans, almost half the population of Cyrenaica, from their settlements, with the intention of giving those lands to Italian Settlers. In addition I did not say they would be successful, it would indeed be impractical, but that does not mean they would not make an attempt. People often underestimate the brutality of Fascist Italy. I don't think actual genocide is particularly likely though, more likely they would attempt to force through the cultural assimilation plots they had (which would most likely be largely unsuccessful) well continuing their plans to bring in Italian settlers (the goal, although it is unlikely to be met, was to half half a million Italian settlers in Libya by 1960, according to Italian wikipedia).

 

[Ferreti]

One factor that I don’t see considered here is the upturn for the Italian industry from not being ravaged by war. Not only does that mean that Italy will be better off compared to France, but it also means that there will be half a million Italians who died in our timeline.

 

[Pelranius]

They already where doing ethnic cleansing in Libya though, for example when they forcibly expelled over 100,000 Bedouin Cyrenaicans, almost half the population of Cyrenaica, from their settlements, with the intention of giving those lands to Italian Settlers. In addition I did not say they would be successful, it would indeed be impractical, but that does not mean they would not make an attempt. People often underestimate the brutality of Fascist Italy. I don't think actual genocide is particularly likely though, more likely they would attempt to force through the cultural assimilation plots they had (which would most likely be largely unsuccessful) well continuing their plans to bring in Italian settlers (the goal, although it is unlikely to be met, was to half half a million Italian settlers in Libya by 1960, according to Italian wikipedia).

Eventually, economic practicality will win out, especially in the Fascist are engaged in other stupid adventures (i.e. Horn of Africa) and trying to keep up militarily with the US and USSR (given the ridiculously macho posturing of Fascist ideology, they'll try to build things like aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, even if those probably end up as junk in the best of cases).

 

[Pelranius]

One factor that I don’t see considered here is the upturn for the Italian industry from not being ravaged by war. Not only does that mean that Italy will be better off compared to France, but it also means that there will be half a million Italians who died in our timeline.

But those half million Italians would likely prefer to work and live in the industrial clusters of northern Italy (or move up there, if they're southern Italians), as opposed to sitting around in some desert twiddling their thumbs.

 

[Aguss]

Italy could imitate Israel, expelling the locals at gunpoint and prohibiting them from returning to their lands. And prohibit Muslim migrations to Libya, to maintain a Catholic majority, preferably Italian.

Israel got it, Italy got it too.

PS: I do not support this (expelling locals from their homes), but an Italian Libyan at least is fictitious.

 

[lukedalton]

Libya in the 40's had less than a million of inhabitans, of that more than 10% was already italian (and thanks to the previous pacification, the locals don't even try to look funny at the italians) and Benny designated the place as the fourth shore and had plan for a massive italian emigration there...expect that the coastal cities of Libya by the 60's had an italian plurality and this don't take in consideration the fact that the locals were slowly assimilated. Basically with Italy neutral Libya will become another part of Italy, not considering that italian neutrality mean a very different WWII and more importantly a very different decolonization, hell is very probable that the British and French empire will last another couple of decades

 

[Pelranius]

Italy could imitate Israel, expelling the locals at gunpoint and prohibiting them from returning to their lands. And prohibit Muslim migrations to Libya, to maintain a Catholic majority, preferably Italian.

Israel got it, Italy got it too.

PS: I do not support this (expelling locals from their homes), but an Italian Libyan at least is fictitious.

Then Italy will then have to import someone else to do all the scut work, and the possible choices for serving the Italian herrenvolk would be people from the Horn of Africa, who are likely to be a lot more hostile to Italy (the Fascists OTL managed to get some level of buy in from the Libyans. Wasn't much but it was enough to get at least a division or two of true believers).

 

[Pelranius]

Libya in the 40's had less than a million of inhabitans, of that more than 10% was already italian (and thanks to the previous pacification, the locals don't even try to look funny at the italians) and Benny designated the place as the fourth shore and had plan for a massive italian emigration there...expect that the coastal cities of Libya by the 60's had an italian plurality and this don't take in consideration the fact that the locals were slowly assimilated. Basically with Italy neutral Libya will become another part of Italy, not considering that italian neutrality mean a very different WWII and more importantly a very different decolonization, hell is very probable that the British and French empire will last another couple of decades

Libyans will still end up with a majority of the population in the long run, thanks to higher birthrates and economics (Italians aren't going to find much in the way of economic opportunities, given that long term petroleum employment isn't going to support millions of people at mainland Italian living standards).

With Libyan GDP overall likely limited by the size of petroleum output (since there's frankly not much for economic growth in manufacturing (mainland Italy can do most of it better)), Libya will have a much lower GDP per capita than Italy itself. A democratic Italy might not be so keen to keep Libya due to the transfer of payments, since even "Italianized" Libyans whose muftis have all gone to the Fascist party schools, are going to be seen as very different.

 

[lukedalton]

Libyans will still end up with a majority of the population in the long run, thanks to higher birthrates and economics (Italians aren't going to find much in the way of economic opportunities, given that long term petroleum employment isn't going to support millions of people at mainland Italian living standards).

With Libyan GDP overall likely limited by the size of petroleum output (since there's frankly not much for economic growth in manufacturing (mainland Italy can do most of it better)), Libya will have a much lower GDP per capita than Italy itself. A democratic Italy might not be so keen to keep Libya due to the transfer of payments, since even "Italianized" Libyans whose muftis have all gone to the Fascist party schools, are going to be seen as very different.

Just before the war 20.000 colonist were sent there and the plan was to have at least half a million by the 60's, sorry maybe you don't realize how poor was south Italy and how many people there see the place as a big opportunity and taking in consideration mainland italian living standard...yes the long term petroleum employment can do that easily.
Forget libyans higher birthrates, first Benny was a firm believe in big families...so it's more probable that italians will have a much higher birthrate of the locals and second, most of the locals will be relegated to the libyan interior and that is not a place very friendly to big families

 

[Mooze17]

Just before the war 20.000 colonist were sent there and the plan was to have at least half a million by the 60's, sorry maybe you don't realize how poor was south Italy and how many people there see the place as a big opportunity and taking in consideration mainland italian living standard...yes the long term petroleum employment can do that easily.
Forget libyans higher birthrates, first Benny was a firm believe in big families...so it's more probable that italians will have a much higher birthrate of the locals and second, most of the locals will be relegated to the libyan interior and that is not a place very friendly to big families

This, and again, they planned to have half a million people go there by the 60s. People overestimate how populated Libya was during this time period, how many Italians already where there, and as you said how poor South Italy was. Many Italians already where moving there en mass, and many more would if Italy retained it for longer and didnt enter WW2. A much more reactionary Italy (which a surviving Fascist Italy would be) would also no doubt have higher birth rates, and in a settler colonial environment the government would likely actively be encouraging the Italians to have larger populations. Also there where more opportunities then just petroleum, hence why so many Italians moved there in the first place before much of that was discovered. I also keep seeing Democratic Italy being brought up long term, but even assuming that happens (which is not guaranteed, especially when the West is likely to support Italy as a ally against the Soviets), and it happened in say, the 60s, that would still leave over two decades for the government to actively encourage tons of Italian settlement, which was ALREADY STARTING TO OCCUR when WW2 began. Besides which, Libya was considered the "fourth shore" and an inherent part of Italy, or at least that was the idea that was attempting to be ingrained, and surviving Fascist Italy, even if it eventually becomes Democratic, would have far more time to build that idea up, and the Democratic government would not necessarily be eager to give up a territory that is full of Italians and that has been built up for decades as an inherent part of Italy in the public consciousness. France was a democracy, and it still fought extremely hard to hold onto Algeria because it was viewed as an inherent part of France, Italy would likely do the same with Libya even if it did go democratic, and considering the far lower population of Libya compared to Algeria, is likely much more successful.

 

[Pelranius]

Just before the war 20.000 colonist were sent there and the plan was to have at least half a million by the 60's, sorry maybe you don't realize how poor was south Italy and how many people there see the place as a big opportunity and taking in consideration mainland italian living standard...yes the long term petroleum employment can do that easily.
Forget libyans higher birthrates, first Benny was a firm believe in big families...so it's more probable that italians will have a much higher birthrate of the locals and second, most of the locals will be relegated to the libyan interior and that is not a place very friendly to big families

A petroleum industry the size of Libya's wouldn't require more than 50,000-75,000 (the National Oil Company Libya and its subsidiaries currently employ about 30,000).

Living standards in Italy are going to rise with industrialization, short of the Fascists morphing into the Italian Khmer Rouge.

How is Mussolini going to overcome the TFR transition for Italians (deny female education?)? Prewar Italian TFR was 3.0 in the best of times. The Libyans won't be relocated to the interior because someone will still have to do all the menial labor (they'll do it a lot cheaper than a Sicilian would).

 

[Pelranius]

This, and again, they planned to have half a million people go there by the 60s. People overestimate how populated Libya was during this time period, how many Italians already where there, and as you said how poor South Italy was. Many Italians already where moving there en mass, and many more would if Italy retained it for longer and didnt enter WW2. A much more reactionary Italy (which a surviving Fascist Italy would be) would also no doubt have higher birth rates, and in a settler colonial environment the government would likely actively be encouraging the Italians to have larger populations. Also there where more opportunities then just petroleum, hence why so many Italians moved there in the first place before much of that was discovered. I also keep seeing Democratic Italy being brought up long term, but even assuming that happens (which is not guaranteed, especially when the West is likely to support Italy as a ally against the Soviets), and it happened in say, the 60s, that would still leave over two decades for the government to actively encourage tons of Italian settlement, which was ALREADY STARTING TO OCCUR when WW2 began. Besides which, Libya was considered the "fourth shore" and an inherent part of Italy, or at least that was the idea that was attempting to be ingrained, and surviving Fascist Italy, even if it eventually becomes Democratic, would have far more time to build that idea up, and the Democratic government would not necessarily be eager to give up a territory that is full of Italians and that has been built up for decades as an inherent part of Italy in the public consciousness. France was a democracy, and it still fought extremely hard to hold onto Algeria because it was viewed as an inherent part of France, Italy would likely do the same with Libya even if it did go democratic, and considering the far lower population of Libya compared to Algeria, is likely much more successful.

What exactly would act as an economic incentive for Italians to flock to Libya, aside from the petroleum industry (which has an upper limit on employment once everything is set up)?

Additionally, Libya will have to compete with the Po Valley and other industrial areas of Italy for employees.

Sure, Libyans might consider themselves Italian citizens in a democratic Italy, but other Italians might not feel that way, especially with Rome having to subsidize Libya, with an obviously non Italian ethnic majority.