Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)
- Thread starter GSD310
- Start date
Try Flashback
Hello guys, I've gotten the new laptop. But unfortunately one thing I haven't been finding lately is the time to add to the TL. It's been an incredibly hectic and busy time for me and it looks to be so for the next few weeks/months. I haven't had the time to "escape" to the world of this TL and when I have a had the time, my brain is too fried to write.
Consider the following my final post as this TL goes into hiatus.
18th August 1975:
From where he sat, Presidential Aide-de-Camp Try Sutrisno had a great view of the Bina Graha's meeting room, the oval table in the middle of it, and the people sitting around the table having the meeting. Though what they were discussing was a matter of great national importance, it was the small things which Try needed to pay attention to. Small things such as a glass of water needing to be filled, the glass of water belonging to the person sitting in the middle of the room. Standing up from his seat and grabbing a pitcher of water, Try walked over to refill the glass. After positioning the glass, Try began to pour water and took a quick glance at those around the table.
There was Vice President Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX, looking glum as though he was attending only out of formality. There were many things that Try did not understand about what he saw during his duties each day but one thing that always puzzled him was why the Vice President is not involved in decision making at the top level. Certainly being the second most prominent person in Indonesian public life brought with it its own authority and stature.
Close to where Try was standing was someone who was quite involved in decision making. State Secretary Sudharmono was the only official around that table, other than the one whose glass Try was pouring water into at the moment of course, who could claim close proximity to the day-to-day running of government in Indonesia. At the beginning of the day, paperwork flowed from Sudharmono's desk requiring signatures, comments, and dispensations and at the end of each day, paperwork would flow to Sudharmono's desk already signed, with comments given, and dispensations scrawled as neccesary. Try would know, it was his job to bring the paperwork back and forth. Try also knew that an excellent and trusted State Secretary was important to the running of government. Without it, the government and the country could not operate.
Across from Try, there was a row of seated ministers. Minister of Home Affairs Amirmachmud, nicknamed "The Bulldozer" for the forceful way he helped to mold the political system; Minister of Foreign Affairs Adam Malik who helped construct ASEAN; and the one who was spending most of his time talking during the meeting, Minister of Defense and Security/Commander of ABRI Maraden Panggabean. Each represented the qualities which a minister should have: loyalty, ability to get the job done, and the bravery to speak out their mind.
The three ministers, offering their advice, were balanced by Chief of BAKIN Yoga Sugama and Deputy Chief of Bakin Ali Murtopo, two members of the inner circle who could offer alternatives to the advice given by the minister. These two occupied a corner of the table.
Another corner were occupied by the upper echelons of the ABRI Headquarters, they were...
"That will do, Try", said the person whose glass Try was filling "It will overflow soon."
"Yes Sir", replied Try.
And then of course, there was President Soeharto for whom Try was aide-de-camp and who turned back to hear what his minister was saying as soon he was finished telling Try not to overflow his glass. The man who had overcame President Soekarno and who had been the apocalypse of the Indonesian Communist Party had a frown on his face as heard the information being given to him.
Try returned to his seat which was a table set aside in a corner of the room for the various aides-de-camp and staffers who had been allowed inside.
It was a tense meeting and at the end of it, Try had to rush again to the President. He had to be there to brace the chair when the President pushed his chair back to stand up and then he had to standby as the President handed Try his glasses and the papers he brought to the meeting. Then the President walked out, using his privilege to leave the room first with Try trailing behind him. Such was the life of an aide-de-camp.
By afternoon, the President had left the Presidential Palace to go back to his private residence at Cendana Street with Try sitting on the front seat next to the Presidential Driver. Try glanced at the President at the rear view mirror. In his year as aide-de-camp, Try had learned to gauge what the President's mood was like based on body language. On this day, the mood was rather grim.
Stepping out of his car, the President immediately made for his office at home with Try carrying the presidential briefcase which contained all sorts of presidential paperwork walking behind him. The President massaged his temple and then looked up at Try who was still holding the presidential briefcase.
"Try", he said.
"Sir", replied Try.
"What do you suppose that meeting was about just now?" asked the President.
"Sir?" asked Try, confused.
"Just want to hear your thoughts on what was being discussed", said the President "No wrong answers, I promise you."
A shiver went through Try's spine. The President had his trademark smile on his face but his eyes seemed to be peering deep into Try. Try gulped and tried to find the will to answer, reminding himself that it had been intimidating as well when he first had to exchange ideas with Major Edi Sudrajat and Major Harsudiono Hartas back at the Army Staff and Command College.
"The meeting was about the situation in Portuguese Timor, Mr. President", replied Try and then seeing the President's eye twinkle encouragingly he continued "The situation there has deteriorated and the military option is being considered, which was why the top officers from ABRI Headquarters were asked to join."
"Good", said the President "Now the question is, what would you do if you were in my situation?"
Try remained quiet. The President comes across as quite but can really build his own momentum and speak at length on issues which he had strong views on; such as the situation in East Timor.
"On the one hand, this nation is embarking on the journey of economic development; the most important journey that it can go on at this stage of its life as a nation", continued the President "And the 1945 Constitution, in its Preamble said, that independence is the right of all nations..."
The President paused.
"And yet on the other hand", he spoke again "We can't allow a new nation, most likely left-wing and communist in orientation, to exist in this archipelago."
"I understand, Sir", Try replied.
"What do you think, Try?" prodded the President "What's the best option?"
There is no right answer, Try wanted to say, but he had to say it in as diplomatic a manner as possible, this was the President after all. If only he could find the right words...
"Bapak, you're interrogating Try?", said a voice behind Try "Let the poor darling go home already so he can have some time with his family."
First Lady Siti Hartinah stepped into the office with a bundle in her hand, Try saluted her and she gave a motherly pat on Try's shoulder.
"Fine, fine, the First Lady is right", said the President "You may be dismissed, Lieutenant Colonel, just place my briefcase here on my desk and I'll see you in a few days."
"Yes, Sir", said Try as he placed the presidential briefcase on the President's desk and then saluted him. The President nodded.
Try turned around and found himself face to face with the First Lady holding up the bundle she had in her hand.
"Made some extra sayur lodeh today", she said with a smile "For Tuti and your little ones."
"Ma'am, you are too kind" began Try "But I don't know if I should..."
"Now, now, Try", replied the First Lady "I won't take no for an answer."
Try looked at the President, he was already reading paperwork though his smile indicated that he was listening to what was going on. Try turned back to the First Lady and took the bundle containing the sayur lodeh. He gave one final bow to the First Couple and then left.
He got changed at the aide-de-camp's room, handed over to the aide-de-camp who would be on duty for the next shift and was just about to leave when he was stopped in his tracks.
"Mas Try", said Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, the President's eldest daughter "Leaving already?"
"Yeah, I have the next few days off", replied Try before looking at the bundle in the President' daughter's hand "How's the baby doing?"
"He's a handful but I'll get used to it" she said before adding "If Bapak and Ibu can handle six children and Mbak Tuti and yourself can handle seven, I'm sure I can handle two."
Try smiled and then he remembered the bundle that he had in his hand.
"Tutut", he called the President's daughter by her nickname as he held the bundle out "I really appreciate that Ibu went to all this trouble, but I don't know if I should..."
"It's okay, Mas Try", said Tutut "Ibu really enjoyed making the extra sayur lodeh for your family, there's even sweets for your children."
"Thank you, Tutut, you are too kind", replied Try "You are all too kind to me."
A bright smile appeared on Tutut's face.
"It's nothing, Mas Try", said Tutut cheerfully "After all, you're practically family."
On that note, Try bid Tutut farewell.
After a few steps, Try looked behind him at the President's Personal Residence and prayed that he would never disappoint the President and his family both in the present and in the future.
---
The meeting which Try witnessed here is quite important as far the road to the eventual Indonesian invasion of East Timor is concerned because it was the first time that the military option was considered as seen with the presence of operational officers from ABRI Headquarters https://soeharto.co/1975-08-18-indonesia-protes-perkembangan-dekolonisasi-timor-portugis/
OTL Soeharto was reluctant about invading East Timor the dilemma he presents Try is based on anecdotal comments recorded by CSIS' Jusuf Wanandi https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...mor+constitution&pg=PA207&printsec=frontcover
The interactions at Cendana Street are of course fictional.
There were three things I wanted to show here:
One, is Try learning and observing about Soeharto's leadership style. Ie. his observation about the State Secretary's position led him to appointing Edi Sudrajat.
Two, the selection of the military option being considered for East Timor as a place for the flashback is to foreshadow something that will happen in the TL. It's an idea that's been germinating in my head and which has pretty much "insisted" that it will happen. Part of the reason why I haven't had time to write is because I am researching for this event.
Three, is Try's relationship with the Soeharto Family, especially with Tutut and how it probably fills ITTL Try with guilt to have Tutut as a political opponent.
Terima kasih semua, thank you all. I'll be seeing you around the forums.
Consider the following my final post as this TL goes into hiatus.
18th August 1975:
From where he sat, Presidential Aide-de-Camp Try Sutrisno had a great view of the Bina Graha's meeting room, the oval table in the middle of it, and the people sitting around the table having the meeting. Though what they were discussing was a matter of great national importance, it was the small things which Try needed to pay attention to. Small things such as a glass of water needing to be filled, the glass of water belonging to the person sitting in the middle of the room. Standing up from his seat and grabbing a pitcher of water, Try walked over to refill the glass. After positioning the glass, Try began to pour water and took a quick glance at those around the table.
There was Vice President Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX, looking glum as though he was attending only out of formality. There were many things that Try did not understand about what he saw during his duties each day but one thing that always puzzled him was why the Vice President is not involved in decision making at the top level. Certainly being the second most prominent person in Indonesian public life brought with it its own authority and stature.
Close to where Try was standing was someone who was quite involved in decision making. State Secretary Sudharmono was the only official around that table, other than the one whose glass Try was pouring water into at the moment of course, who could claim close proximity to the day-to-day running of government in Indonesia. At the beginning of the day, paperwork flowed from Sudharmono's desk requiring signatures, comments, and dispensations and at the end of each day, paperwork would flow to Sudharmono's desk already signed, with comments given, and dispensations scrawled as neccesary. Try would know, it was his job to bring the paperwork back and forth. Try also knew that an excellent and trusted State Secretary was important to the running of government. Without it, the government and the country could not operate.
Across from Try, there was a row of seated ministers. Minister of Home Affairs Amirmachmud, nicknamed "The Bulldozer" for the forceful way he helped to mold the political system; Minister of Foreign Affairs Adam Malik who helped construct ASEAN; and the one who was spending most of his time talking during the meeting, Minister of Defense and Security/Commander of ABRI Maraden Panggabean. Each represented the qualities which a minister should have: loyalty, ability to get the job done, and the bravery to speak out their mind.
The three ministers, offering their advice, were balanced by Chief of BAKIN Yoga Sugama and Deputy Chief of Bakin Ali Murtopo, two members of the inner circle who could offer alternatives to the advice given by the minister. These two occupied a corner of the table.
Another corner were occupied by the upper echelons of the ABRI Headquarters, they were...
"That will do, Try", said the person whose glass Try was filling "It will overflow soon."
"Yes Sir", replied Try.
And then of course, there was President Soeharto for whom Try was aide-de-camp and who turned back to hear what his minister was saying as soon he was finished telling Try not to overflow his glass. The man who had overcame President Soekarno and who had been the apocalypse of the Indonesian Communist Party had a frown on his face as heard the information being given to him.
Try returned to his seat which was a table set aside in a corner of the room for the various aides-de-camp and staffers who had been allowed inside.
It was a tense meeting and at the end of it, Try had to rush again to the President. He had to be there to brace the chair when the President pushed his chair back to stand up and then he had to standby as the President handed Try his glasses and the papers he brought to the meeting. Then the President walked out, using his privilege to leave the room first with Try trailing behind him. Such was the life of an aide-de-camp.
By afternoon, the President had left the Presidential Palace to go back to his private residence at Cendana Street with Try sitting on the front seat next to the Presidential Driver. Try glanced at the President at the rear view mirror. In his year as aide-de-camp, Try had learned to gauge what the President's mood was like based on body language. On this day, the mood was rather grim.
Stepping out of his car, the President immediately made for his office at home with Try carrying the presidential briefcase which contained all sorts of presidential paperwork walking behind him. The President massaged his temple and then looked up at Try who was still holding the presidential briefcase.
"Try", he said.
"Sir", replied Try.
"What do you suppose that meeting was about just now?" asked the President.
"Sir?" asked Try, confused.
"Just want to hear your thoughts on what was being discussed", said the President "No wrong answers, I promise you."
A shiver went through Try's spine. The President had his trademark smile on his face but his eyes seemed to be peering deep into Try. Try gulped and tried to find the will to answer, reminding himself that it had been intimidating as well when he first had to exchange ideas with Major Edi Sudrajat and Major Harsudiono Hartas back at the Army Staff and Command College.
"The meeting was about the situation in Portuguese Timor, Mr. President", replied Try and then seeing the President's eye twinkle encouragingly he continued "The situation there has deteriorated and the military option is being considered, which was why the top officers from ABRI Headquarters were asked to join."
"Good", said the President "Now the question is, what would you do if you were in my situation?"
Try remained quiet. The President comes across as quite but can really build his own momentum and speak at length on issues which he had strong views on; such as the situation in East Timor.
"On the one hand, this nation is embarking on the journey of economic development; the most important journey that it can go on at this stage of its life as a nation", continued the President "And the 1945 Constitution, in its Preamble said, that independence is the right of all nations..."
The President paused.
"And yet on the other hand", he spoke again "We can't allow a new nation, most likely left-wing and communist in orientation, to exist in this archipelago."
"I understand, Sir", Try replied.
"What do you think, Try?" prodded the President "What's the best option?"
There is no right answer, Try wanted to say, but he had to say it in as diplomatic a manner as possible, this was the President after all. If only he could find the right words...
"Bapak, you're interrogating Try?", said a voice behind Try "Let the poor darling go home already so he can have some time with his family."
First Lady Siti Hartinah stepped into the office with a bundle in her hand, Try saluted her and she gave a motherly pat on Try's shoulder.
"Fine, fine, the First Lady is right", said the President "You may be dismissed, Lieutenant Colonel, just place my briefcase here on my desk and I'll see you in a few days."
"Yes, Sir", said Try as he placed the presidential briefcase on the President's desk and then saluted him. The President nodded.
Try turned around and found himself face to face with the First Lady holding up the bundle she had in her hand.
"Made some extra sayur lodeh today", she said with a smile "For Tuti and your little ones."
"Ma'am, you are too kind" began Try "But I don't know if I should..."
"Now, now, Try", replied the First Lady "I won't take no for an answer."
Try looked at the President, he was already reading paperwork though his smile indicated that he was listening to what was going on. Try turned back to the First Lady and took the bundle containing the sayur lodeh. He gave one final bow to the First Couple and then left.
He got changed at the aide-de-camp's room, handed over to the aide-de-camp who would be on duty for the next shift and was just about to leave when he was stopped in his tracks.
"Mas Try", said Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, the President's eldest daughter "Leaving already?"
"Yeah, I have the next few days off", replied Try before looking at the bundle in the President' daughter's hand "How's the baby doing?"
"He's a handful but I'll get used to it" she said before adding "If Bapak and Ibu can handle six children and Mbak Tuti and yourself can handle seven, I'm sure I can handle two."
Try smiled and then he remembered the bundle that he had in his hand.
"Tutut", he called the President's daughter by her nickname as he held the bundle out "I really appreciate that Ibu went to all this trouble, but I don't know if I should..."
"It's okay, Mas Try", said Tutut "Ibu really enjoyed making the extra sayur lodeh for your family, there's even sweets for your children."
"Thank you, Tutut, you are too kind", replied Try "You are all too kind to me."
A bright smile appeared on Tutut's face.
"It's nothing, Mas Try", said Tutut cheerfully "After all, you're practically family."
On that note, Try bid Tutut farewell.
After a few steps, Try looked behind him at the President's Personal Residence and prayed that he would never disappoint the President and his family both in the present and in the future.
---
The meeting which Try witnessed here is quite important as far the road to the eventual Indonesian invasion of East Timor is concerned because it was the first time that the military option was considered as seen with the presence of operational officers from ABRI Headquarters https://soeharto.co/1975-08-18-indonesia-protes-perkembangan-dekolonisasi-timor-portugis/
OTL Soeharto was reluctant about invading East Timor the dilemma he presents Try is based on anecdotal comments recorded by CSIS' Jusuf Wanandi https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...mor+constitution&pg=PA207&printsec=frontcover
The interactions at Cendana Street are of course fictional.
There were three things I wanted to show here:
One, is Try learning and observing about Soeharto's leadership style. Ie. his observation about the State Secretary's position led him to appointing Edi Sudrajat.
Two, the selection of the military option being considered for East Timor as a place for the flashback is to foreshadow something that will happen in the TL. It's an idea that's been germinating in my head and which has pretty much "insisted" that it will happen. Part of the reason why I haven't had time to write is because I am researching for this event.
Three, is Try's relationship with the Soeharto Family, especially with Tutut and how it probably fills ITTL Try with guilt to have Tutut as a political opponent.
Terima kasih semua, thank you all. I'll be seeing you around the forums.
Indonesia being an archipelagic country means that the army must have dedicated amphibious warfare troops so the projected Navy strength can be cut to 40,000 which is about 80% of the Indian Navy and 100,000 men should be added to the Police so as to make it 500,000 and separated from ABRI.
Noooo! I pray that everything turns out to be good for you and we see what happens to Try soon. Since I found this TL last year I eagerly wait for updates every week. I must say that this is the most realistic and well researcher TL that I have seen in this board.
Our amphibious warfighting is handled by Marine Corps, and it has been under the Navy since it's inception.
Also, I remember something important. The 2008 Financial Crisis. Apparently Indonesia is pretty resilient in this one OTL, now imagine what it could do with debt moratorium that has been active for years and would still be active for the entire duration of the crisis.
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Thank you guys. I'm with you Pio2013, I too hope the hiatus will not be as long as I think it will be. I've taken time off before but it's the first time I've used that word . It's just that things have been hectic. I can and am still doing research and making notes (because that's as easy as scrolling through Wikipedia before I go to bed). It's putting it all together that I've not had time for in recent times. Really hope things work out well for me both in real life and in this TL, because we're only about 25-30% through.
Thank you so much. I try to make things detailed enough that they feel real but not to the point where things get bogged down.
Pilatypus has answered the question about the amphibious force. I would add that the Police being separated from ABRI along with the military getting out of politics (ie. no longer holding government positions while being active officers) is something that is very unlikely to happen ITTL. OTL Indonesia once Soeharto had fallen was about making as many political changes as possible in a short amount of time. It's not that I want to go back to the Soeharto days but it's just if you lived through the Habibie and Wahid presidencies there was a strong feeling of "Everything has to change and it has to change NOW". But once you have a better handling of the Asian Financial Crisis and no riots occur, a lot of the drive for political change disappears.
That said there are some things happening ITTL relating to ABRI which would have been considered mind-blowing for those living in ITTL. It would've been unthinkable for Wiranto to think that "My loyalty to Try is because he's Soeharto's constitutional successor rather than because I see him as a friend" or for ABRI to think "Hang on, we have to show the same loyalty to the next guy if Try is no longer president". Soekarno and Soeharto mention their role as the constitutional supreme commander of ABRI but a lot of the loyalty they inspired was based on who they are rather than the presidency.
I will admit I've given some thought about this and how OTL Indonesia would do. You are very correct, OTL Indonesia did better than a lot of other countries. But it's still quite far away.
165: Not Safe To Turn Our Backs
25th March 2002:
The Presidential Airplane arrived late at night in Suva, Fiji. There was only time for President Try Sutrisno to be given an unofficial welcome by Fijian Minister for Foreign Affairs Laisenia Qarase when he arrived at the Nausori International Airport before he went to his hotel.
26th March 2002:
The first stop of the day was Government House, where Try was given an official welcome by President Josefa Iloilo. The real welcome by the real person in charge of Fiji was given at Government Building when Try was greeted by Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama. In front of the media, Bainimarama said that he was glad to welcome someone who he had been looking to meet for some time. Try said that it was important for Indonesia to have friends in all parts of the world.
Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, and Deputy Commander of ABRI Chappy Hakim when he met with Bainimarama, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Mahendra Chaudhry, Qarase, and Minister of Commerce, Trade, Tourism, and Transport Jone Kubuabola.
The meeting between the two delegations produced MoUs to increase trade between Indonesia and Fiji, specifically ensuring distribution of Indonesia’s fast moving consumer goods products in Fiji. In turn, Indonesia will facilitate marketing of Fiji as a tourist destination in Indonesia, this marketing campaign will target the upper classes considering the flight distance to Fiji. A program which will allow Fijian Military Forces officers to study at the ABRI Staff and Command College was also agreed upon.
From this meeting, Try recorded an interview for Fiji One Television and then returned to the hotel.
The evening’s event was a meet and greet with Indonesians who had come from all over Oceania to meet with him. Try took questions from them about various issues for a long time, even when Edi was giving him a signal to wrap it up, out of respect for the distances they’ve travelled to be where he was at.
Things took an interesting turn when a questioner from New Zealand reported that there’s been an increased of anti-Indonesian activity in New Zealand. Try guessed that this must be the “East Timor secessionists” but the questioner responded that it was the “the Irian Jaya separatists”. They have not been holding demonstrations the way the East Timor seccessionists has but they have been doing thing like setting up stands at fairs and markets to sell goods so that they can raise funds for their cause.
This caused a chain reaction. Every questioner after that, even when the question was not related to the topic, would point out that they are seeing an increase of Irian Separatists activities where they are residing trying to drum up support and raising funds through donations. One questioner, residing in Vanuatu, was able to produce a photograph of a fundraising event held a big restaurant. Try was handed the photograph and his expression became grim at the flag that could be seen displayed in the photograph.
“The Morning Star…” he muttered.
Questioners who had previously asked question also told their own stories. The reports were such that Try was forced to address it as he made his concluding statements.
“I will check what you all have reported to me regarding the Irian Separatists with the Chief of BAKIN”, he said “I thank you for your help.”
As he went up the elevator, Try was in a thoughtful mood that Edi had to ask what he was thinking.
“With less than 2 months to go until the elections, I thought I’d get a lot of questions about the elections, what’s going to happen after the elections, the MPR Session”, he began “I’d never thought I’d be getting reports that the Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM) is alive in Oceania and mobilizing.”
27th March 2002:
Try, accompanied by Ginandjar and with Bainimarama as the event’s special guest, today inaugurated the Indonesian Embassy in Fiji. Try made the speech saying that Indonesia wishes to deepen its relationship with Fiji and considers it to be a friend. When Try finished the crowd applauded and then it was Bainimarama’s turn to make a speech. As Try sat down, he noticed Ginandjar and Edi who was sitting immediately behind him looking tense.
“What’s up with you two?” Try asked.
Edi handed a note. Try read it and was thinking that this was turning out to be not such a good trip when Edi whispered to him to pretend that everything was okay.
Try managed to feign a pleasant expression on his face and applauded Bainimarama’s speech. But once the event ended, Edi was keen for Try to leave as quickly as possible. Try got in the car just a reporter asked about his thoughts on the “events in Myanmar”.
Back at the hotel, a secure three-way phone link-up was established. In Jakarta, there were Vice President JB Sumarlin, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo on the phone. Over at Rangoon, Myanmar, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar and Commander of ABRI Wiranto, stood by. Try told the men at Rangoon to speak first, they being the Indonesian delegation to attend the Tatmadaw Day events that day.
“We and all the diplomatic corps here became very suspicious when we got a notification literally at dawn saying that the event was cancelled, Mr. President”, reported Wismoyo “Then there were military units occupying strategic points in the city and we knew something was happening.”
“Then just a few hours ago, Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt, First Secretary of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) appeared on television, he announced that he had arrested Chairman of the SPDC Than Shwe and Vice Chairman of the SPDC Maung Aye and that he was now the new Chairman of the SPDC”, continued Wiranto “And as we speak, he’s gathered all the officers that had gathered in the capital for Tatmadaw Day to impose his will, make arrests, and whatever else he needs to do to consolidate, Mr. President.”
“It’s a coup, Mr. President”, added Ari Sudewo “And if this event and information that we’ve gathered in the days and weeks is any indication, Khin Nyunt has been challenging Than Shwe’s authority about joining Indonesia’s bloc. This explains why Than Shwe has been communicating on an military-to-military basis instead of foreign minister-to-foreign minister basis about his desire to join our bloc, because the Myanmar Minister of Foreign Affairs, Win Aung, is a Khin Nyunt supporter.”
“We didn’t have any inkling that this was about to happen?” asked Edi.
“Khin Nyunt has been Chief of Military Intelligence for nearly two decades”, replied Ari “He would know what to do to ensure as much secrecy as possible.”
“How has other nations reacted to this?” asked Ginandjar.
“It’s still too early though that has not prevented one nation from declaring its official response to the coup and declaring its recognition of Khin Nyunt as the new leader of Myanmar”, replied Soerjadi.
“Recognition? You mean this nation supports the coup?” asked Edi “Which nation would that be?”
“The People’s Republic of China”, said Try, breaking his silence with a tone that said he was not surprised.
“The President is correct”, said Soerjadi “Within an hour of Khin Nyunt’s television announcement, Beijing has issued a statement.”
That afternoon, Try returned to the Government Building to have a one-on-one meeting with Bainimarama. They talked about various issues and Try mentioned about his conversation the previous day with Indonesians in Fiji, including about the possibility of the OPM going all around Oceania trying to gather support for their cause. Bainimarama said that he would not be surprised if this was true since there are a lot of sympathy towards the OPM among other nations in the region but that these sentiments will be resolutely opposed in Fiji because it is Fiji’s stance that Irian Jaya is a part of Indonesian territory.
When Try emerged out of the meeting with Bainimarama he looked exhausted. Edi picked up on this though he waited until Try was back in his Presidential Suite to discuss it.
“You seem to be taking the news of the coup pretty badly, Mr. President”, said Edi “What you’ve said has come true hasn’t it? China is trying to reassert its position in Southeast Asia by supporting the new regime in Myanmar and this will strengthen the argument that Southeast Asia should unite behind us.”
“That’s true”, replied Try “But if what I learned yesterday and today is anything to go by, we should be concerned about Oceania as well as well.”
“The Air Force made the argument last month at the ABRI Leadership Meeting that we should see Australia as a security threat, but you’re saying now we should be concerned about the region?” asked Edi.
“We’ve identified China as our primary national security threat and our foreign policy is predicated on decisively assuming the leadership of region so that it will be the combined strength of ASEAN rising up against China rather than just merely our own”, explained Try “In the process of going after that goal, though, we will be turning our backs on Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu…a whole lot of nations.”
“The question is do we feel secure doing that? Do we feel secure turning our back on a region where the OPM is being active? Not all nations in this region are as supportive of our stance towards the OPM as Fiji is.”
“They’re no longer a threat, Mr. President”, said Edi “You made sure of that by making Irian Jaya a Special Region and you’ll make it doubly sure when Freeport agrees to divest its shares and I assure you that Freeport is just a matter of time.”
Try looked at Edi with a look that said he was not convinced.
“You have the OPM raising funds for God knows what but we now have to check and recheck the intel and get ready for whatever they possibly have in store, you have New Zealand being the home of the Timor Lorosae Government-in-Exile, and then you have Australia secretly trying to lobby the United States to pressure us into deploying our personnel to Afghanistan” explained Try “We can’t turn our backs on that. It would be irresponsible of me to turn our backs on that.”
Edi now massaged his head.
“So what do we do now?” asked Edi “Do we still focus on Southeast Asia and countering China or do we try to get something done in Oceania? Or what do we do?”
“I have no idea, Edi, I truly don't have the slightest idea”, said Try.
---
Full credit to my parents for asking me to stay over at their place since Wednesday. Somehow the creative juices got flowing. I hope I have more time to write even though I will be/am busy. I am still thinking way too much about this TL and still want to tell more stories about Indonesia in an alternate universe to let it go.
In OTL Fiji, Bainimarama held power for two months in 2000 before relinquishing it and resuming his military career. In 2006 he overthrew the government in a coup and this time did not relinquish power, holding on to it until the present time. In ITTL, he has continued to hold on to power. His profile can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Bainimarama.
And just like that, the OPM makes its debut in the TL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Papua_Movement
OTL, Khin Nyunt is known for being a pro-China member of the Myanmar Junta.
www.voanews.com
This is going to be Try’s foreign policy dilemma for the near foreseeable future. His foreign policy goal regarding SE Asia and China is clear but he feels insecure turning his back on Oceania in the pursuit of this goal. This dilemma and its implications will be explored further in future updates.
The Presidential Airplane arrived late at night in Suva, Fiji. There was only time for President Try Sutrisno to be given an unofficial welcome by Fijian Minister for Foreign Affairs Laisenia Qarase when he arrived at the Nausori International Airport before he went to his hotel.
26th March 2002:
The first stop of the day was Government House, where Try was given an official welcome by President Josefa Iloilo. The real welcome by the real person in charge of Fiji was given at Government Building when Try was greeted by Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama. In front of the media, Bainimarama said that he was glad to welcome someone who he had been looking to meet for some time. Try said that it was important for Indonesia to have friends in all parts of the world.
Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, and Deputy Commander of ABRI Chappy Hakim when he met with Bainimarama, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Mahendra Chaudhry, Qarase, and Minister of Commerce, Trade, Tourism, and Transport Jone Kubuabola.
The meeting between the two delegations produced MoUs to increase trade between Indonesia and Fiji, specifically ensuring distribution of Indonesia’s fast moving consumer goods products in Fiji. In turn, Indonesia will facilitate marketing of Fiji as a tourist destination in Indonesia, this marketing campaign will target the upper classes considering the flight distance to Fiji. A program which will allow Fijian Military Forces officers to study at the ABRI Staff and Command College was also agreed upon.
From this meeting, Try recorded an interview for Fiji One Television and then returned to the hotel.
The evening’s event was a meet and greet with Indonesians who had come from all over Oceania to meet with him. Try took questions from them about various issues for a long time, even when Edi was giving him a signal to wrap it up, out of respect for the distances they’ve travelled to be where he was at.
Things took an interesting turn when a questioner from New Zealand reported that there’s been an increased of anti-Indonesian activity in New Zealand. Try guessed that this must be the “East Timor secessionists” but the questioner responded that it was the “the Irian Jaya separatists”. They have not been holding demonstrations the way the East Timor seccessionists has but they have been doing thing like setting up stands at fairs and markets to sell goods so that they can raise funds for their cause.
This caused a chain reaction. Every questioner after that, even when the question was not related to the topic, would point out that they are seeing an increase of Irian Separatists activities where they are residing trying to drum up support and raising funds through donations. One questioner, residing in Vanuatu, was able to produce a photograph of a fundraising event held a big restaurant. Try was handed the photograph and his expression became grim at the flag that could be seen displayed in the photograph.
“The Morning Star…” he muttered.
Questioners who had previously asked question also told their own stories. The reports were such that Try was forced to address it as he made his concluding statements.
“I will check what you all have reported to me regarding the Irian Separatists with the Chief of BAKIN”, he said “I thank you for your help.”
As he went up the elevator, Try was in a thoughtful mood that Edi had to ask what he was thinking.
“With less than 2 months to go until the elections, I thought I’d get a lot of questions about the elections, what’s going to happen after the elections, the MPR Session”, he began “I’d never thought I’d be getting reports that the Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM) is alive in Oceania and mobilizing.”
27th March 2002:
Try, accompanied by Ginandjar and with Bainimarama as the event’s special guest, today inaugurated the Indonesian Embassy in Fiji. Try made the speech saying that Indonesia wishes to deepen its relationship with Fiji and considers it to be a friend. When Try finished the crowd applauded and then it was Bainimarama’s turn to make a speech. As Try sat down, he noticed Ginandjar and Edi who was sitting immediately behind him looking tense.
“What’s up with you two?” Try asked.
Edi handed a note. Try read it and was thinking that this was turning out to be not such a good trip when Edi whispered to him to pretend that everything was okay.
Try managed to feign a pleasant expression on his face and applauded Bainimarama’s speech. But once the event ended, Edi was keen for Try to leave as quickly as possible. Try got in the car just a reporter asked about his thoughts on the “events in Myanmar”.
Back at the hotel, a secure three-way phone link-up was established. In Jakarta, there were Vice President JB Sumarlin, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo on the phone. Over at Rangoon, Myanmar, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar and Commander of ABRI Wiranto, stood by. Try told the men at Rangoon to speak first, they being the Indonesian delegation to attend the Tatmadaw Day events that day.
“We and all the diplomatic corps here became very suspicious when we got a notification literally at dawn saying that the event was cancelled, Mr. President”, reported Wismoyo “Then there were military units occupying strategic points in the city and we knew something was happening.”
“Then just a few hours ago, Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt, First Secretary of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) appeared on television, he announced that he had arrested Chairman of the SPDC Than Shwe and Vice Chairman of the SPDC Maung Aye and that he was now the new Chairman of the SPDC”, continued Wiranto “And as we speak, he’s gathered all the officers that had gathered in the capital for Tatmadaw Day to impose his will, make arrests, and whatever else he needs to do to consolidate, Mr. President.”
“It’s a coup, Mr. President”, added Ari Sudewo “And if this event and information that we’ve gathered in the days and weeks is any indication, Khin Nyunt has been challenging Than Shwe’s authority about joining Indonesia’s bloc. This explains why Than Shwe has been communicating on an military-to-military basis instead of foreign minister-to-foreign minister basis about his desire to join our bloc, because the Myanmar Minister of Foreign Affairs, Win Aung, is a Khin Nyunt supporter.”
“We didn’t have any inkling that this was about to happen?” asked Edi.
“Khin Nyunt has been Chief of Military Intelligence for nearly two decades”, replied Ari “He would know what to do to ensure as much secrecy as possible.”
“How has other nations reacted to this?” asked Ginandjar.
“It’s still too early though that has not prevented one nation from declaring its official response to the coup and declaring its recognition of Khin Nyunt as the new leader of Myanmar”, replied Soerjadi.
“Recognition? You mean this nation supports the coup?” asked Edi “Which nation would that be?”
“The People’s Republic of China”, said Try, breaking his silence with a tone that said he was not surprised.
“The President is correct”, said Soerjadi “Within an hour of Khin Nyunt’s television announcement, Beijing has issued a statement.”
That afternoon, Try returned to the Government Building to have a one-on-one meeting with Bainimarama. They talked about various issues and Try mentioned about his conversation the previous day with Indonesians in Fiji, including about the possibility of the OPM going all around Oceania trying to gather support for their cause. Bainimarama said that he would not be surprised if this was true since there are a lot of sympathy towards the OPM among other nations in the region but that these sentiments will be resolutely opposed in Fiji because it is Fiji’s stance that Irian Jaya is a part of Indonesian territory.
When Try emerged out of the meeting with Bainimarama he looked exhausted. Edi picked up on this though he waited until Try was back in his Presidential Suite to discuss it.
“You seem to be taking the news of the coup pretty badly, Mr. President”, said Edi “What you’ve said has come true hasn’t it? China is trying to reassert its position in Southeast Asia by supporting the new regime in Myanmar and this will strengthen the argument that Southeast Asia should unite behind us.”
“That’s true”, replied Try “But if what I learned yesterday and today is anything to go by, we should be concerned about Oceania as well as well.”
“The Air Force made the argument last month at the ABRI Leadership Meeting that we should see Australia as a security threat, but you’re saying now we should be concerned about the region?” asked Edi.
“We’ve identified China as our primary national security threat and our foreign policy is predicated on decisively assuming the leadership of region so that it will be the combined strength of ASEAN rising up against China rather than just merely our own”, explained Try “In the process of going after that goal, though, we will be turning our backs on Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu…a whole lot of nations.”
“The question is do we feel secure doing that? Do we feel secure turning our back on a region where the OPM is being active? Not all nations in this region are as supportive of our stance towards the OPM as Fiji is.”
“They’re no longer a threat, Mr. President”, said Edi “You made sure of that by making Irian Jaya a Special Region and you’ll make it doubly sure when Freeport agrees to divest its shares and I assure you that Freeport is just a matter of time.”
Try looked at Edi with a look that said he was not convinced.
“You have the OPM raising funds for God knows what but we now have to check and recheck the intel and get ready for whatever they possibly have in store, you have New Zealand being the home of the Timor Lorosae Government-in-Exile, and then you have Australia secretly trying to lobby the United States to pressure us into deploying our personnel to Afghanistan” explained Try “We can’t turn our backs on that. It would be irresponsible of me to turn our backs on that.”
Edi now massaged his head.
“So what do we do now?” asked Edi “Do we still focus on Southeast Asia and countering China or do we try to get something done in Oceania? Or what do we do?”
“I have no idea, Edi, I truly don't have the slightest idea”, said Try.
---
Full credit to my parents for asking me to stay over at their place since Wednesday. Somehow the creative juices got flowing. I hope I have more time to write even though I will be/am busy. I am still thinking way too much about this TL and still want to tell more stories about Indonesia in an alternate universe to let it go.
In OTL Fiji, Bainimarama held power for two months in 2000 before relinquishing it and resuming his military career. In 2006 he overthrew the government in a coup and this time did not relinquish power, holding on to it until the present time. In ITTL, he has continued to hold on to power. His profile can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Bainimarama.
And just like that, the OPM makes its debut in the TL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Papua_Movement
OTL, Khin Nyunt is known for being a pro-China member of the Myanmar Junta.
Burma Assures China of Close Ties
Burma replaces pro-Chinese PM Khin Nyunt by hard-line general Soe Win
www.voanews.com
This is going to be Try’s foreign policy dilemma for the near foreseeable future. His foreign policy goal regarding SE Asia and China is clear but he feels insecure turning his back on Oceania in the pursuit of this goal. This dilemma and its implications will be explored further in future updates.
This “tension” between Indonesia and the Aussies will brew for a bit.
It might be said that ITTL Australia played an important role in Indonesia’s recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis in early 1998. Much as in OTL, Australia lobbied the IMF to be lenient to Indonesia. The difference is that where in OTL Indonesia did not get leniency, ITTL Indonesia got it.
I wanted to convey Australia’s ambivalence towards Indonesia here. Australia doesn’t want China to be too strong and sees Indonesia as a counterweight, but now that Indonesia’s recovered from the crisis and growing stronger as well starting to spend on defense again, Australia’s starting to feel insecure about Indonesia.
All your ATL scenario is very possible. Well no matter what Indonesia need to arming ABRI / TNI with weapon system from Eastern and Western Block. This is fate for regional power that do not have nuclear weapons. They do not possess immunity power to make stance neutral.
166: The Garuda Warns The Dragon
28th March 2002:
For President Try Sutrisno, the morning began with a breakfast at Government House with the Great Council of Chiefs, a constitutional body in Fiji whose membership also comprised of President of Fiji Josesfa Iloilo and Prime Minister of Fiji Frank Bainimarama. Speeches were made and gifts were exchanged but it was a chance for Try to say his farewells.
Meanwhile, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita was handling questions from the press corps about what the President thought about the events in Myanmar. Ginandjar only said that the President will issue a statement on Myanmar when he arrives home at Jakarta later in the day.
As the event came to an end, Try too found himself being asked questions about the situation in Myanmar.
“What do you make of President Jiang Zemin’s statement that China’s support of Myanmar is to ensure that the principle of non-interference in a country’s internal affairs is upheld?” asked one reporter.
Try just smiled and got in the car.
When the Presidential Airplane had taken off, the President summoned Ginandjar and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat to his office. The President picked Ginandjar’s brains on the issue at hand.
Try asked how has nations in the region reacted to the Myanmar coup. Ginandjar reported that Cambodia and Malaysia had also recognized the new regime in Myanmar while Singapore and Brunei expressed concern at the turn of events but said that they will not intervene in other nation’s internal affairs. Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos are waiting for Indonesia to make its statement first in acknowledgment of Indonesia’s leadership.
Regarding China, Ginandjar said that it made sense for China to quickly show its support for the new regime for at least three reasons:
*Preventing Indonesia from gaining a majority in ASEAN and from controlling the agenda in ASEAN.
*After Cambodia and Malaysia, China can add to the list of nations friendly towards it within ASEAN by backing Myanmar. The division in ASEAN is now Cambodia, Malaysia, and Myanmar being in Beijing’s camp, Singapore and Brunei neutral, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos and Vietnam in Indonesia’s camp.
*Feeling the need to regain control of events. In December 2001, President of Taiwan James Soong who favored closer ties to the mainland suffered a blow when the Kuomintang lost its majority in the Taiwan Legislative Elections to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and then last month, China just barely secured the re-election of Tung Chee Hwa as Chief Executive of Hong Kong over Anson Chan.
To that Ginandjar would add that since January 2002, Prime Minister of Japan Koichi Kato, known for his pro-China stance, has been involved in a scandal which has not reflected well on him, namely an aide has been suspected of tax evasion. In the last few days said aide has been arrested and there’s been pressure for him to resign. To compensate for that, Ginandjar argued, China has to have something go in its favour elsewhere.
“It’s not all bad news”, said Ginandjar “Thailand will be even more committed to its relationship with us considering it has Myanmar on its west, Malaysia on its south, and Cambodia to its east. India lost a buffer state now that Myanmar’s going to orbit in Beijing’s direction, it’ll be even more in its interest to see us strong.”
Edi listened to Ginandjar. The Minister of Foreign Affairs had figured out the same calculation that Try had: the stronger China becomes, the stronger the argument for a strong Indonesia becomes.
Try and Ginandjar’s spirits lifted at this but they turned serious when discussing the revelations about the OPM being active in Oceania. Ginandjar shared Try’s concern that if it was true, the situation presented Indonesia with a dilemma about whether or not to “turn our backs” on Oceania as it pursues its foreign policy in Southeast Asia.
At that instance, Try received a tap on his shoulder. Military Secretary Sudrajat reported that it was time for his call. Try picked up the headset and began talking with Ginandjar and Edi looking on.
“President Try, how are you? We’re all waiting for your statement on Myanmar” said the cheerful voice from the other side of the phone.
“President Jiang, I must ask for your patience a little longer”, said Try to President of China Jiang Zemin.
After some smalltalk, Try moved to the meat and potatoes. Try said that the power struggle between Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt was an internal matter of Myanmar. Jiang said he agrees which was why Khin Nyunt’s assumption of power should not be questioned. Try said he disagreed with what Jiang said because Jiang showed partiality by supporting Khin Nyunt. Jiang said he did not intervene to influence the result of the coup but Try protested that Jiang made sure that Khin Nyunt’s position became solidified.
“All right then, Mr. President”, said Jiang “What would you have me do?”
“Withdraw your support on Myanmar and tell Khin Nyunt to give power back to Than Shwe”, replied Try.
Jiang refused even when Try said that if China did what he asked, he would consider China a friend.
“The stance of the People’s Republic of China is clear”, said Jiang firmly.
“Then Indonesia is also clear how it should view the People’s Republic of China”, countered Try.
“Good day, President Try”, said Jiang “I look forward to your statement.”
Try turned off the telephone.
It was evening by the time the Presidential Airplane arrived at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport. After shaking hands with Vice President JB Sumarlin and other officials who had come to welcome him back, the President went to stand at a row of microphone. There, he spoke about his trip to Iran, the Philippines, and Fiji.
And then he talked about events in Myanmar, outlining at some length the Indonesian delegation’s experiences at Myanmar before going on to what his and Indonesia’s stance would be.
“In the aftermath of the events in Myanmar, there has been plenty of statements from various countries about what’s happened. Condemning, supporting, promising sanctions, and everything in between.
For Indonesia, the most unfortunate of these statements is the one issued by the People’s Republic of China. This statement expresses its support for the new government in Myanmar, justifying it on grounds of non-interference in a country’s internal affairs.
I too agree with the principle of non-interference, however I question the way in which this principle has been defined in this situation. In the past 24 hours, the world has become increasingly aware of the struggle for political influence in Myanmar by different factions of the Tatmadaw which has resulted in the coup. In this situation, the correct definition of non-interference should be avoding taking the sides of any one one of the parties in this political struggle.
Instead, what has happened was that the People’s Republic of China has declared support to the new regime in an effort to bolster the position of that new government. In Indonesia’s view, this is not non-interference as there is a partiality shown towards one of the parties in Myanmar engaging in political struggle.
Here in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, we must also consider the implications of the events of Myanmar for our region where last year and on a party-to-party basis, there was an effort to derail the course of the Vietnamese Communist Party’s National Congress.
The events in Myanmar has shown something very clearly to all of us here in Southeast Asia: that there are forces outside of our region seeking to influence events within our region for their own benefit and that we must band together to ensure that this will not be case. We in Southeast Asia welcome productive and mutually beneficial relations with anyone outside of the region including the People’s Republic of China.
But we must speak very frankly. The worst way, the wrong way, to go about these productive and mutually beneficial relations is for outsiders to go around helping themselves to multiple seats around ASEAN’s table.
With these considerations in mind, I must declare on behalf of the Republic of Indonesia and the Indonesian people that I condemn the events which had occurred in Myanmar, I do not recognize General Khin Nyunt’s status as the new Chairman of the SPDC, and I have instructed Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar to contact our friends in the region to discuss meeting, whether that be at a ministerial or head of government level, at the earliest possible opportunity.
Thank you, that’s all from me, Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh…”
---
There was some uncomfortable shuffling amongst the members of the Politburo Standing Committee when the statement was translated into Mandarin but there were more than a few angry faces as well. Chairman of the NPC Li Peng being one of them.
“How dare he say such things” Li Peng said “He can’t take China one-on-one, that’s why he wants to borrow the combined strength of ASEAN’s member nations, he is not worth our time.”
“Comrade Li Peng”, said Premier of China Zhu Rongji “We are passing up on a free evening tonight just so we can gather around to watch him speak, I’d say that he is worth more than we would like to admit.”
Sitting between them, Jiang Zemin watched the screen with an amused look on his face.
“This will be interesting”, he said.
By midnight, the Thai, Vietnamese, Filipino, and Laotian governments had also issued their statements about the events in Myanmar echoing Indonesia’s condemnation and concern about China’s interference in the internal affairs in Southeast Asia.
30th March 2002:
After getting some rest the previous day, which was also Good Friday public holiday, the President, accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and Edi Sudrajat, met with Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and the Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono to discuss campaign preparations.
Basofi reported that campaign preparations are reaching their peak. The DPR, the DPRD candidates, and all the PKPI branches in the regions are making final preparation checks for the campaign. Hendropriyono said the t-shirts, merchandise, and the posters and banners are ready to go. On campaign funds, Hendropriyono said they took a hit with Aburizal Bakrie declaring himself neutral but this had been more than made up by property developers throwing themselves behind the PKPI as well as the various “FKPPI for Try” and “Hipmi for Try” groups.
Looking sheepish, Hendropriyono reported the latest polling which suggests that the vote for the PKPI will be around the 37-42% range. While the President looked aghast at the polls, Harsudiono asked what the problem was. Hendropriyono said the rural votes and those suspicious of the government of being anti-Islam. Anecdotally, these people are now being joined by people in the business world who normally have “arrangements” or pay “commissions” to the bureaucracy.
“I don’t believe for a second that the combined number of shady forest concessionaires and corrupt contractors are in the tens of thousands”, said Edi.
“You’re right”, said Hendropriyono “But they do number that much when they mobilize their partners, suppliers, distributors, workers, labourers etc. to vote for the PKPB.”
“Attacking people in their wallets”, added Harsudiono “Best way to piss them off.”
As far as rural votes go, Hendropriyono said that Chairman of the DPR Harmoko is convinced he can get them back for the PKPI. He produced a paper which showed Harmoko’s itinerary for the campaign period. The President raised his eyebrow when he read it wondering if it was too much. Hendropriyono said that this was what Harmoko wanted and what the PKPI required.
1st April 2002:
At the Presidential Palace today, accompanied by Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta, State Minister of Poverty Alleviation GKR Hemas, and State Minister of Rural Development Feisal Tamin and Empowered Communities National Program (PNPM) cadres who will go around Indonesia to help implement the programs, the President hit a gong signalling the beginning of the program. The President said that this program will be the spearhead in Indonesia’s efforts to eradicate poverty.
After the event, the President presided over a ceremony in which he swore in the following:
*Adm. Djoko Sumaryono as Navy Chief of Staff
*Gen. (Police) Ansyaad Mbai as Chief of Police
After the ceremony, Commander of ABRI Wiranto was interviewed about the changes at the top of the Navy and the Police some two weeks before the election campaign was due to start. Wiranto said that the President wants to refresh the Navy and the Police’s leadership. Djoko Sumaryono is one of the Navy’s most brilliant minds and Ansyaad Mbai, as the Deputy Chief of Police, was the brains behind the Police’s tough action against Jemaah Islamiyah.
Wiranto was still taking when Edi Sudrajat interrupted him saying that the meeting was about to start. This piqued the interests of the members of the press who began asking Edi what will the meeting about and who will be attending.
“It'll be attended by anyone who's got anything to do with national security”, said Edi before he turned away "What is it about? Big picture strategical stuff".
---
I forgot to inform in the previous update that OTL March 2002, there was an alleged coup being plotted in Myanmar https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/10/...or-of-myanmar-suspected-of-plotting-coup.html. What happened in ITTL is that the coup is real and is successful because China supports it.
The situation in Japan with the Prime Minister of Japan is also based on OTL https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2002/01/13/national/kato-apologizes-to-supporters-for-scandal/
For President Try Sutrisno, the morning began with a breakfast at Government House with the Great Council of Chiefs, a constitutional body in Fiji whose membership also comprised of President of Fiji Josesfa Iloilo and Prime Minister of Fiji Frank Bainimarama. Speeches were made and gifts were exchanged but it was a chance for Try to say his farewells.
Meanwhile, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita was handling questions from the press corps about what the President thought about the events in Myanmar. Ginandjar only said that the President will issue a statement on Myanmar when he arrives home at Jakarta later in the day.
As the event came to an end, Try too found himself being asked questions about the situation in Myanmar.
“What do you make of President Jiang Zemin’s statement that China’s support of Myanmar is to ensure that the principle of non-interference in a country’s internal affairs is upheld?” asked one reporter.
Try just smiled and got in the car.
When the Presidential Airplane had taken off, the President summoned Ginandjar and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat to his office. The President picked Ginandjar’s brains on the issue at hand.
Try asked how has nations in the region reacted to the Myanmar coup. Ginandjar reported that Cambodia and Malaysia had also recognized the new regime in Myanmar while Singapore and Brunei expressed concern at the turn of events but said that they will not intervene in other nation’s internal affairs. Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos are waiting for Indonesia to make its statement first in acknowledgment of Indonesia’s leadership.
Regarding China, Ginandjar said that it made sense for China to quickly show its support for the new regime for at least three reasons:
*Preventing Indonesia from gaining a majority in ASEAN and from controlling the agenda in ASEAN.
*After Cambodia and Malaysia, China can add to the list of nations friendly towards it within ASEAN by backing Myanmar. The division in ASEAN is now Cambodia, Malaysia, and Myanmar being in Beijing’s camp, Singapore and Brunei neutral, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos and Vietnam in Indonesia’s camp.
*Feeling the need to regain control of events. In December 2001, President of Taiwan James Soong who favored closer ties to the mainland suffered a blow when the Kuomintang lost its majority in the Taiwan Legislative Elections to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and then last month, China just barely secured the re-election of Tung Chee Hwa as Chief Executive of Hong Kong over Anson Chan.
To that Ginandjar would add that since January 2002, Prime Minister of Japan Koichi Kato, known for his pro-China stance, has been involved in a scandal which has not reflected well on him, namely an aide has been suspected of tax evasion. In the last few days said aide has been arrested and there’s been pressure for him to resign. To compensate for that, Ginandjar argued, China has to have something go in its favour elsewhere.
“It’s not all bad news”, said Ginandjar “Thailand will be even more committed to its relationship with us considering it has Myanmar on its west, Malaysia on its south, and Cambodia to its east. India lost a buffer state now that Myanmar’s going to orbit in Beijing’s direction, it’ll be even more in its interest to see us strong.”
Edi listened to Ginandjar. The Minister of Foreign Affairs had figured out the same calculation that Try had: the stronger China becomes, the stronger the argument for a strong Indonesia becomes.
Try and Ginandjar’s spirits lifted at this but they turned serious when discussing the revelations about the OPM being active in Oceania. Ginandjar shared Try’s concern that if it was true, the situation presented Indonesia with a dilemma about whether or not to “turn our backs” on Oceania as it pursues its foreign policy in Southeast Asia.
At that instance, Try received a tap on his shoulder. Military Secretary Sudrajat reported that it was time for his call. Try picked up the headset and began talking with Ginandjar and Edi looking on.
“President Try, how are you? We’re all waiting for your statement on Myanmar” said the cheerful voice from the other side of the phone.
“President Jiang, I must ask for your patience a little longer”, said Try to President of China Jiang Zemin.
After some smalltalk, Try moved to the meat and potatoes. Try said that the power struggle between Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt was an internal matter of Myanmar. Jiang said he agrees which was why Khin Nyunt’s assumption of power should not be questioned. Try said he disagreed with what Jiang said because Jiang showed partiality by supporting Khin Nyunt. Jiang said he did not intervene to influence the result of the coup but Try protested that Jiang made sure that Khin Nyunt’s position became solidified.
“All right then, Mr. President”, said Jiang “What would you have me do?”
“Withdraw your support on Myanmar and tell Khin Nyunt to give power back to Than Shwe”, replied Try.
Jiang refused even when Try said that if China did what he asked, he would consider China a friend.
“The stance of the People’s Republic of China is clear”, said Jiang firmly.
“Then Indonesia is also clear how it should view the People’s Republic of China”, countered Try.
“Good day, President Try”, said Jiang “I look forward to your statement.”
Try turned off the telephone.
It was evening by the time the Presidential Airplane arrived at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport. After shaking hands with Vice President JB Sumarlin and other officials who had come to welcome him back, the President went to stand at a row of microphone. There, he spoke about his trip to Iran, the Philippines, and Fiji.
And then he talked about events in Myanmar, outlining at some length the Indonesian delegation’s experiences at Myanmar before going on to what his and Indonesia’s stance would be.
“In the aftermath of the events in Myanmar, there has been plenty of statements from various countries about what’s happened. Condemning, supporting, promising sanctions, and everything in between.
For Indonesia, the most unfortunate of these statements is the one issued by the People’s Republic of China. This statement expresses its support for the new government in Myanmar, justifying it on grounds of non-interference in a country’s internal affairs.
I too agree with the principle of non-interference, however I question the way in which this principle has been defined in this situation. In the past 24 hours, the world has become increasingly aware of the struggle for political influence in Myanmar by different factions of the Tatmadaw which has resulted in the coup. In this situation, the correct definition of non-interference should be avoding taking the sides of any one one of the parties in this political struggle.
Instead, what has happened was that the People’s Republic of China has declared support to the new regime in an effort to bolster the position of that new government. In Indonesia’s view, this is not non-interference as there is a partiality shown towards one of the parties in Myanmar engaging in political struggle.
Here in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, we must also consider the implications of the events of Myanmar for our region where last year and on a party-to-party basis, there was an effort to derail the course of the Vietnamese Communist Party’s National Congress.
The events in Myanmar has shown something very clearly to all of us here in Southeast Asia: that there are forces outside of our region seeking to influence events within our region for their own benefit and that we must band together to ensure that this will not be case. We in Southeast Asia welcome productive and mutually beneficial relations with anyone outside of the region including the People’s Republic of China.
But we must speak very frankly. The worst way, the wrong way, to go about these productive and mutually beneficial relations is for outsiders to go around helping themselves to multiple seats around ASEAN’s table.
With these considerations in mind, I must declare on behalf of the Republic of Indonesia and the Indonesian people that I condemn the events which had occurred in Myanmar, I do not recognize General Khin Nyunt’s status as the new Chairman of the SPDC, and I have instructed Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar to contact our friends in the region to discuss meeting, whether that be at a ministerial or head of government level, at the earliest possible opportunity.
Thank you, that’s all from me, Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh…”
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Beijing
“But we must speak very frankly. The worst way, the wrong way, to go about these productive and mutually beneficial relations is for people to go around and helping themselves to multiple seats around ASEAN’s table”, said Try Sutrisno’s image on the television screen.
There was some uncomfortable shuffling amongst the members of the Politburo Standing Committee when the statement was translated into Mandarin but there were more than a few angry faces as well. Chairman of the NPC Li Peng being one of them.
“How dare he say such things” Li Peng said “He can’t take China one-on-one, that’s why he wants to borrow the combined strength of ASEAN’s member nations, he is not worth our time.”
“Comrade Li Peng”, said Premier of China Zhu Rongji “We are passing up on a free evening tonight just so we can gather around to watch him speak, I’d say that he is worth more than we would like to admit.”
Sitting between them, Jiang Zemin watched the screen with an amused look on his face.
“This will be interesting”, he said.
By midnight, the Thai, Vietnamese, Filipino, and Laotian governments had also issued their statements about the events in Myanmar echoing Indonesia’s condemnation and concern about China’s interference in the internal affairs in Southeast Asia.
30th March 2002:
After getting some rest the previous day, which was also Good Friday public holiday, the President, accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and Edi Sudrajat, met with Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and the Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono to discuss campaign preparations.
Basofi reported that campaign preparations are reaching their peak. The DPR, the DPRD candidates, and all the PKPI branches in the regions are making final preparation checks for the campaign. Hendropriyono said the t-shirts, merchandise, and the posters and banners are ready to go. On campaign funds, Hendropriyono said they took a hit with Aburizal Bakrie declaring himself neutral but this had been more than made up by property developers throwing themselves behind the PKPI as well as the various “FKPPI for Try” and “Hipmi for Try” groups.
Looking sheepish, Hendropriyono reported the latest polling which suggests that the vote for the PKPI will be around the 37-42% range. While the President looked aghast at the polls, Harsudiono asked what the problem was. Hendropriyono said the rural votes and those suspicious of the government of being anti-Islam. Anecdotally, these people are now being joined by people in the business world who normally have “arrangements” or pay “commissions” to the bureaucracy.
“I don’t believe for a second that the combined number of shady forest concessionaires and corrupt contractors are in the tens of thousands”, said Edi.
“You’re right”, said Hendropriyono “But they do number that much when they mobilize their partners, suppliers, distributors, workers, labourers etc. to vote for the PKPB.”
“Attacking people in their wallets”, added Harsudiono “Best way to piss them off.”
As far as rural votes go, Hendropriyono said that Chairman of the DPR Harmoko is convinced he can get them back for the PKPI. He produced a paper which showed Harmoko’s itinerary for the campaign period. The President raised his eyebrow when he read it wondering if it was too much. Hendropriyono said that this was what Harmoko wanted and what the PKPI required.
1st April 2002:
At the Presidential Palace today, accompanied by Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Social Affairs Meutia Hatta, State Minister of Poverty Alleviation GKR Hemas, and State Minister of Rural Development Feisal Tamin and Empowered Communities National Program (PNPM) cadres who will go around Indonesia to help implement the programs, the President hit a gong signalling the beginning of the program. The President said that this program will be the spearhead in Indonesia’s efforts to eradicate poverty.
After the event, the President presided over a ceremony in which he swore in the following:
*Adm. Djoko Sumaryono as Navy Chief of Staff
*Gen. (Police) Ansyaad Mbai as Chief of Police
After the ceremony, Commander of ABRI Wiranto was interviewed about the changes at the top of the Navy and the Police some two weeks before the election campaign was due to start. Wiranto said that the President wants to refresh the Navy and the Police’s leadership. Djoko Sumaryono is one of the Navy’s most brilliant minds and Ansyaad Mbai, as the Deputy Chief of Police, was the brains behind the Police’s tough action against Jemaah Islamiyah.
Wiranto was still taking when Edi Sudrajat interrupted him saying that the meeting was about to start. This piqued the interests of the members of the press who began asking Edi what will the meeting about and who will be attending.
“It'll be attended by anyone who's got anything to do with national security”, said Edi before he turned away "What is it about? Big picture strategical stuff".
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I forgot to inform in the previous update that OTL March 2002, there was an alleged coup being plotted in Myanmar https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/10/...or-of-myanmar-suspected-of-plotting-coup.html. What happened in ITTL is that the coup is real and is successful because China supports it.
The situation in Japan with the Prime Minister of Japan is also based on OTL https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2002/01/13/national/kato-apologizes-to-supporters-for-scandal/
Yes, by this stage Indonesia's asserted its leadership and also expanding its leadership role in other areas such as economics and culture (Si Doel being dubbed in Thai and Tagalog). If you notice, when the ITTL Indonesian government experimented with abolishing the fiskal (Airport Exit Tax), it conveniently experimented by abolishing exit tax for Indonesians going to countries already in its group.
To be honest tho I wonder how it would effect with the upcoming election. In the TL Try could be seen as the one who started Indonesian foreign policy adventures more active then his predecessors while of course still juggling around with many domestic stuff , in particular the infrastructure programs I bet or the economy.
This is bad because our weak power on economy and military unless Indonesia can embrace India, Japan, and South Korea. We have no nuclear weapon, sea deniying, air deniying, strategic bomber, and supply transport power. China on 2002 maybe we can calm but on 8-10 years with their military build up the gap will too far to catch. I told this on the past we need TOT fron French, Germany, Rusia (India ways) and South Korea to catch up with China. Well maybe US on this thread too possible if we join the camp
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Well it’s still early 2000s so while their growth is fast but we still capable to counter it with the TLs Indonesia own way. The PLAN is still experimenting and this is should also be the start where PLA wanted to reform themselves as a whole after seeing the reports on Gulf War and Desert Storm. So while their growth is exceptional in the context of time, again it needs time and Indonesia also have that time to spend. Not only for Indonesia tbh but also it’s gang (especially Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines since they are essentially what we can describe as “in the frontline”). With this Indonesia while growing but also not stuck in some problems of IRL it should be capable to at least grow the Capital and have influence to counter China’s influence. And I guess that’s why everything here shouldn’t see militarily but also soft power wise and economics since they are equally important with military aspects of things.
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I agree with softpower as much as important as hardpower but remember how the might of South Sea Fleet even without carrier they still have couple LHD. I still not mention how fast they can build warship and aircraft because their industrial power receive TOT from Rusia, French, Italia and Germany. Well it would be necessary if the softpower backed up by strong military. There are some good middleground long term partnership with French, Rusia, South Korea, and Germany to build the military