Russia’s allies are close but they’re not going to join for no reason. Germany not subjugating Europe allows them to better access European markets and industries.
They will almost surely join, if nothing else because they can gain something from the war, Yugoslavia and Romania want more of Hungary and Bulgaria can be persuaded in exchange of small gains for small participation (that's probably what they think will happen)
I wouldn’t say it’s more industrialized than the USSR. Say what you will about the USSR, they did undeniably build up a massive heavy industry base. The main difference here is that this Russia doesn’t slack on light industry- this Russia will be able to produce luxury and commercial goods outside of raw resources and arms like the USSR did- but they also won’t be the juggernaut they were OTL in terms of heavy industry.
Here they have more industries in general and more importantly who are much more efficient than the USSR's, and their natural resources are better exploited.
The civilian government wouldn’t be aching for war. Fear doesn’t immediately or definitively transfer to aggression- they could try and outdo Russia, isolate Russia, or accomodate Russia- whichever seems most beneficial.
They can try but outcompete Russia cannot be done in the long run so that leads to war immediately.
Isolating Russia is difficult, it's more probable they isolate you since Germany isn't very popular in Europe anyways and since most of the world is European colonies you are isolated add to that the US and its sphere are Russian friendly and you see that there aren't many who want to ally with you.
Accommodate Russia is possible but not really something the Germans are keen on doing if they are anything close to OTL.
They have a lot more influence and control over med. trade routes ITTL, and they’ve expanded significantly- their economic development isn’t impossible.
What happened after WW2 was a pure miracle, nobody expected that. The Italians lack the leadership who would do this. They would probably have a bigger economy than OTL but I still wouldn't consider them to the level of the others.
You place a lot of faith in people who in many cases amount to bandit leaders.
Money can buy everything and warlords prefer not attracting that kind of attention from the Russians and transporting them via train is safe.
Not without cause, though.
Especially if there are some sort of democratic reforms made by the Decembrists.
They likely won’t be going to war a decade after WW1.
I'm not saying that it's a 100% chance but I don't see them standing each other more than 25 years.
It’s awful for morale if your capital is consistently getting shelled, though.
Constantly, it would be more damaging to the Germans who constantly die on sea mines.
Russia doesn’t control their foreign policy. Russia can influence them, and their populations are for the most part on the Russian side- but they can certainly refuse.
Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and Romania would join the Russians in most cases and even in the unlikely case they don't they won't join the Germans.
They would feel threatened by Serbia, if nothing else, and have no reason to join on Russia’s side themselves.
They wouldn't really feel threatened by Yugoslavia, sure they may claim that Macedonia is rightfully Serb but apart from that they won't really try to take it and the Russians would prevent them if they tried. Bulgaria does have a reason to join the war, it would give them small bits of Romania and Yugoslavia in exchange for a few professional armies and some volunteers for the Russians, they wouldn't have to wage total war and would have decent gains, they could also decide not to but they wouldn't gain anything from that decision.
Russia can grow in production, but it won’t be able to replace Germany as the financial center of Europe for a while.
But it would still be a massive economy, also Germany was extremely rich OTL also but it didn't save them.
That hasn’t stopped them from being rebellious.
They are rebellious when an idiotic emperor makes them starve, here they don't starve so everything is fine.
The grass is always greener- Russia is russifiying them, they’re more unhappy with the state than with their nobles.
Not sure about that, Nicky II was trying to Russify them but that doesn't mean that the ones ITTL will.
Germany could certainly incite polish rebellion, the problem is they wouldn’t want to, since it would be dangerous for THEIR border regions- not to say it wouldn’t still happen, though.
Problem is you want to annex Poland or make a puppet state out of it and the Poles know that, I don't see them being enthusiastic to die to be a part of Germany.
They soak up Russian resources trying to quell, which isn’t ideal.
Not really, CA didn't rebel OTL, there were tensions between Russians and Muslims but they never rebelled.
The Arabs might try to rebel but it wouldn't be very successful and after the first few attempts they would give up unless Russia makes massive mistakes which make them hated to some stratospheric level. They would be annoying but they wouldn't be catastrophic.
They don’t have many French people in Germany itself- most of it is in its puppet Belgium, which I agree would be unstable- but that’s just one on the European continent compared to Russia’s dozens. Also, you’re forgetting the Caucasus- that oil is important.
And North-Eastern France all of that population would be willing to die to even just divert German resources.
Caucasus isn't really capable of breaking away, they could be annoying but they didn't do anything OTL in WW1, don't see why they would try now.
They started from completely different points. Russia is larger both in size and scale than Germany, so it would take quite long for the infrastructure and systems to be built- time which Germany spends making an educated, rich populace.
Making your populace educated isn't related to infrastructure, the Russians will first abolish serfdom and do agricultural reforms and then start industrialization and education, they would certainly succeed in having an educated and rich population maybe not on Germany's level but still.
The Crimean landing isn’t likely to be repeated, though- the naval actions of the entente will likely be to batter Russia’s fleet in a decisive battle and return to defend Constantinople.
The Entente doesn't have enough ships, in addition to Germany they have to worry about Italy and Greece in the Med so they will probably just send enough help for the Ottomans to not lose or have a slightly stronger fleet.
The various new mega states in Latin America, likely richer and more important globally, could be coerced to join- though the most important ally Germany would seek is a rebuilt Britain.
Lat Am is in the US sphere of influence and most of them wouldn't be rich since they still would have economies based on selling raw materials, one may've industrialized but it wouldn't necessarily prefer Germany and it certainly wouldn't want to get involved in the war for no reason.
GB wouldn't want to join, they've been destroyed by WW1, joining WW2 would be stupid and unpopular.
It’s not really the Cold War of OTL- it’s more so the great power politics of the 19th century except with only 2(.5) powers. War WILL come- but they’ll try to find beneficial compromises before then, because neither is assured of their victory in a large scale war.
Knowing what happened in WW2 with a far inferior 'Russia' I have no doubts on who will win and on what will they search compromises since they already partitioned Europe? Their only real battleground would be China.
