How much of a difference would delaying the colonial era by less then a century make?

[Kyro92]

Preventing the advent of European colonialism is a pretty common topic of discussion here- but how about, rather then prevent it, merely delaying it slightly, by 50-100 years?

Given how the Portuguese exploration was supported by the Portuguese crown, the pace of their exploration was heavily dependant on the government's willingness to fund it- financial troubles in Portugal, or a monarch with different priorities, could plausibly delay the circumnavigation of Africa by a few decades or more.

As for the Americas- the previous POD is probably enough to butterfly Christopher Columbus's existence. Without any Coloumbus analogue, the most likely beginnings of European colonisation in America are Portuguese sailors stumbling upon the Brazilian coast and European fisherman discovering the New Foundland fisheries. Given how far these areas are from mesoamerica, I don't think it's at all implausible to delay encounters with Europe by around a century.

The implications for the Americas are quite drastic-old world diseases are likely to have devastated the civilised centres of Mesoamerica and the Andes well in advance of European arrival, and perhaps have developed some degree of herd immunity and re-established some form of stable political order after the initial chaos.

The implications for the Middle East and Asia are another matter. Delaying the redirection of trade routes could have some pretty serious implications, as it would in turn delay the economic decline of the Ottomans. Possibly could be enough to make the difference when they sieged Vienna?

I don't have enough knowledge about the Asian polities of the time to speculate about what the delay would mean for them...

 

[Analytical Engine]

European fishermen had already discovered the Grand Banks fisheries before Columbus even set sail. They just kept it secret. However, this didn't lead to any colonisation efforts

 

[Mildtryth]

The implications for the Middle East and Asia are another matter. Delaying the redirection of trade routes could have some pretty serious implications, as it would in turn delay the economic decline of the Ottomans. Possibly could be enough to make the difference when they sieged Vienna?

Frankly, I'd think that could benefit the Mamluks more than the Ottomans. One might presume that not having to fight for control of the Indian ocean trade with Portugal for the better part of a decade might help them when the Ottomans invade.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

France conquers more of the Habsburg empire.
Cortez-like expedition might fail since IIRC the Conquistadors also benefited by arriving when some Aztec god should've come which might just be enough to make the expedition fail and discredit any similar expedition. And because the Aztecs might be stronger

Frankly, I'd think that could benefit the Mamluks more than the Ottomans. One might presume that not having to fight for control of the Indian ocean trade with Portugal for the better part of a decade might help them when the Ottomans invade.

I think they would still lose badly, the reason they lost was because the Ottoman armies were much more modern than the Mamluk ones, the war with Portugal didn't particularly drain Mamluk resources.

 

[Silver01]

The implications for the Americas are quite drastic-old world diseases are likely to have devastated the civilised centres of Mesoamerica and the Andes well in advance of European arrival, and perhaps have developed some degree of herd immunity and re-established some form of stable political order after the initial chaos.

the evidence now is against it with exceptions first contact almost never results in pandemics.

but I asked an meso american historian what would occur to aztec empire to quote him like there wasnt any one singular goal other than to capture strategic regions
they were trying to conquer the places surrounding the P'urepecha empire to try to encircle them like they were doing Tlaxcallan And they were expanding southeast into Guatemala to get the cacao sources, they seemed prime to conquer K'umarkaj as the latter's empire was at the time very fragile from internal conflict

a misconception is that the flower wars were done just for human sacrifices this is wrong it was done to encircle the enemy cut them off from the trade and raids would keep the pressure until they surrendered this was working prior to cortez given some time Tlaxcalla likely falls, as mentioned above the K'umarkaj are fragile and likely get conquered the aztec would continue a period of growth as archeology shows the valley of mexico saw a boom in population but in 1540s a series of drougths would hit mexico, with out the conquistadors and their whole war plus abuses and slave we will not see a total collapse we saw in the otl but we can see a period of crisis it just depends how good the aztec leadership can deal with it it could in the long run kill the empire or not, if it does i assume the aztec go in to decline if not the aztec empire probably reforms to some capacity.

As for the inca, Atahualpa marches himself down to Cuzco and rolls the heads of many in Cusco. He likely consolidates his position and takes the land of the mummies he destroyed, like Tupac inca yupanqui, who owned a lot of land. As he was a userper, he needed to first deal with Cusco and then the allies of his brother to the north, like the Chanchapoyas. After consolidating, given the fact that he got his throne by military force and needed legitimacy, he would go on campaigning, and the next logical choice is north. The spanish sources states that Huayna capac sent scouts and found really nothig worth conquering so either these scouts were bad or they did not go that far sure north were the pubesene confederation with their many forts both north of them there is a series of cultures and east to them the famous muiscas so inca expansion has a long way to go and migth even reach that far in to colombia i suspect that long term the inca will split into north and south kinda of what rome did east and west the inca also integrated conquered people given an extra 50 to 100 years many more of these would become quechua speaking unlike the aztec no big natural disaster would occur till 1600 with the eruption of a volcano near arequipa.

in the old world is possible that spain continues for a while the reconquest of africa or attempts to given how it changes its attention with out gold discovery spain does not suffer its economic collapse but it also means spain and the Hre are now more on the defense against a centralized france